NGX Market Summary – Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Investors woke up to a vibrant session as the NGX ASI advanced by 1.02% to close at 118,579.65, bringing the Year-To-Date (YTD) return to an impressive 16.10%. Market turnover strengthened, up 7.15% to ₦21.34B, with bullish breadth confirmed by 68 advancers versus just 25 decliners (breadth ratio: 2.72x). Volumes were robust, led by sustained institutional trading (69.7% of today's volumes). Notable price action included DANGSUGAR (+10.0%) at the top of the gainers and a sharp selloff in OKOMUOIL (-10.00%). Momentum signals, especially Moving Average and RSI breakouts, point to continued bullish undercurrents but also expose developing overbought pockets worth watching. Below, we break down today's key statistics and hidden patterns, arming both retail and institutional investors with actionable insights.

1. Market Breadth & Underlying Trends

• Advancers maintained overwhelming dominance (68) against decliners (25), signaling robust bullish sentiment and wide market participation.
• Trading volume rose for 86 stocks, with 55 seeing lower activity: breadth supported by volume is a classic sign of "rising tide lifts all boats."
• Market turnover increased 7.15% to ₦21.34B, and total deals numbered 20,539 – robust liquidity foundation for price moves.

2. Top Gainers & Losers – Momentum in Detail

• DANGSUGAR: Top gainer with +10.0%, continues sectoral strength in consumer goods. RSI neutral at 53; further upside likely but watch for rapid reversal cues.
• OKOMUOIL: RSI at an exorbitant 95.4 🚩— severe overbought; signals risk of near-term pullback despite current strength.
• BETAGLAS: 81.8 RSI and strong MACD, confirming breakout; up 414% YTD. May justify profit-taking soon.
• DAARCOMM, IMG and NPF MFB: Notable in both daily and YTD decliners; media and microfinance under continued pressure.

3. Deep Dives: Hidden Insights & Predictions

• Turnover surge: The jump (+7.15%) in traded value hints at renewed institutional engagement and support for large-cap moves. Historically, fresh institutional flows precede multi-session rallies in leading names.
• Advancers/Decliners: The 2.7:1 ratio is considerable; sustainable rallies often draw strength from such broad-based participation. A sign of confidence, with little overhead resistance in the near term.
• Unusual Volume: ROYAL EXCHANGE traded nearly 20x its average volume (1,909% spike). FTNCOCOA and CADBURY also saw outsized activity — patterns suggesting major shifts in holder base or block trades. Monitor for follow-through or sharp reversals here.
• Cross-sectional moves: Several stocks overlap between bullish momentum (15DMA cross above) and unusual volume (UPDC, FTNCOCOA). This combination historically precedes sustained momentum bursts.
• Bearish Outliers: DAARCOMM, REGALINS, and IMG all appeared both in YTD losers and in the ‘below 15DMA’ bearish list — sustained downtrends, reinforcing "avoid" flags for trend-followers.
• YTD Gainers: BETAGLAS (+414%), PRESCO (+168%), and CHAMPION (+160%) remain trending. Many have RSI above 70 (e.g., BETAGLAS at 81.8, CHAMPION at 76.7). These are typical "exhaustion" zones; caution on fresh entries, but momentum traders may ride these with tight stops.
• Bullish Momentum: UPDC's 15DMA cross supported by price and sector flows. However, its P/E is 0 with a massive 34% yield - worth scrutinizing for sustainability.
• Bearish Momentum: MULTIVERSE, FCMB, REGALINS, IMG, and DAARCOMM fell below 15DMA with several showing declining RSI (notably REGALINS: RSI 54.2→52.6). These are stocks losing sponsorship during a rallying market—potential shorts or avoid signals.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION: Despite an RSI in the mid-70s (76.7), strong YTD returns (+160%), and positive MACD, its previous week was mixed (-9.8% YTD). If this persists, short-term retracement is likely before a renewed run-up, making it a "buy the dip" candidate only on evidence of resumed strength.
• OKOMUOIL: Explosive RSI (95.4) and positive MACD BUT moves in tandem with overall institutional flows; any exhaustion here could trigger sizable corrective actions. Contrarians may eye a turn lower.
• ELLAHLAKES: RSI of 82 and huge short-term gain (+32% in 5 days, +114% YTD) after a recent price spike. Contrarians usually anticipate some profit-taking pressure here.
• High Dividend/Yield Caution: UPDC: 34% yield, low price and volume spike. Could signal risk of a "dividend trap" unless payout sustainability is confirmed.

4. Sector Heatmap

5. Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunities)

6. Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for 20.17% (₦1.67B) of institutional trade value; institutional clustering and value flows often precede further price trends. Momentum and value buyers remain in control.
• FIDELITYBK and UBA: Both among most traded by both retail and institutional investors, reinforcing broad-based investor confidence.
• OKOMUOIL: 13.7% of institutional trade value today; unusually bullish – but see caution above regarding extreme RSI.

7. YTD Top Gainers & Losers Table (as of Tuesday)

8. Dividend Yield & Momentum Overlaps

• UPDC: Red-flag—34% dividend yield, huge price jump (+10%), and bullish 15DMA crossover. May attract "yield chasers," but P/E and EPS are zero—possible dividend trap. Sustainable only on confirmed payout coverage; watch news.
• FIDELITYBK: Strong 5.5% yield, low beta, popular with both institutional and retail. Attractive for medium-term portfolios.
• REGALINS, NPFMCRFBK: High yields but persistent technical and momentum weakness—caution advised despite income allure.

9. Pro Tips for Traders

• Momentum Play: Ride winners in the short term, especially those with bullish crossover and unusual volume (e.g., FTNCOCOA, UPDC, CADBURY), but keep tight stops given overbought signals.
• Risk Controls: Overheated RSI in leading gainers (OKOMUOIL, BETAGLAS, PRESCO) call for caution. Consider phasing out positions to lock profits, or hedge via options/other mechanisms if available.
• Contrarian "Buy-the-dip": For strong YTD stocks currently retracing (e.g., CHAMPION), initiate buys only after new momentum or support confirmation.
• Yield Hunters: Don't rush into ultra-high dividend stocks without confirming sustainability - especially UPDC and REGALINS.
• Monitor Sectors: Banking, Consumer, and Agriculture stocks are seeing heavy flows and breakouts—opportunities ongoing, but watch for upward exhaustion signals as liquidity rotates.

10. Trade Activity & Market Structure Insights

• Institutional Activity: 38% of trade count, ~70% of volume, and 90% of value: Big money is moving the tape. This confirms depth and that rallies are not just retail-driven froth.
• Retail Activity: 62% of trades, but only ≈30% of volume and <10% of value, mainly focused on lower-priced and mid-cap issues.
• Top Institutional Trades: ZENITHBANK (20.2% value share), FIDELITYBK (6.7%), OKOMUOIL (13.7%), CADBURY, and UBA. These remain primary avenues for further big-ticket moves.
• Top Retail Trades: ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA, MTNN. These overlap with institutional picks—signal of confluence and confirm entry/exit liquidity.
• Correlating with technicals: ZENITHBANK, FIDELITYBK, UBA are in both retail and institutional tables and are displaying mid-50 RSI and positive MA trends, indicating consensus bullishness. These are good candidates for liquid, technically-supported trades.

• Today's strong advance, supported by healthy breadth and institutional participation, is bullish—but traders should beware pockets of extreme RSI and be ready for tactical pullbacks, especially in overextended leaders.
• Watch for further volume spikes and follow-through in names with both momentum and unusual activity. Opportunities remain in banking, selected consumer and agric sector names for those managing risk with discipline.
• Dividend chasers should do their homework: high yields on UPDC and REGALINS are tempting, but not automatically safe—scrutinize earnings strength and payout sustainability, and use technical signals as confirmation.
• Institutional clustering (e.g., ZENITHBANK, OKOMUOIL) can prelude continued trends but also signals likely "exit waves” when clusters reverse. Monitor for sharp reversals as turnover shifts.

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