InfoWARE AI Analyst Daily Market Report: 04-Jul-2025

InfoWARE AI Analyst Daily Market Report: 04-Jul-2025
(Source: InfoWARE Terminal, Date: 04-Jul-2025)

Dear Investor,

NGX Daily Market Summary & Insights – Friday, July 4, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) inched up by 0.01% to close at 120,977.20, pushing year-to-date gains to 17.26%. Market breadth favored advancers, with a healthy 44 stocks rising versus 29 decliners (breadth ratio: 1.52x). However, underlying activity was sluggish — total market turnover plunged by -64.05% to 10.18B Naira despite still robust trading volumes (862.22M). Sellers dominated some high-flyer names after recent rallies, while ETFs and select insurance and banking tickers caught significant flows. The Naira also firmed up slightly, gaining 0.33% against the Dollar (now ₦1,528/$1).

Key Market Trends & Bullet Insights

Market Breadth: Advancers outpaced decliners (44:29), but with 62 companies showing volume increases against 78 with declines, suggesting profit-taking and mixed conviction.
Top Gainer: VSPBONDETF (Vetiva S & P Nigeria Sovereign Bond ETF) soared +67.10%, driven by an impressive MACD divergence and a post-correction rally.
Top Loser: CHAMPION (Champion Brew. Plc) slumped -10.00%. Despite extremely high RSI (80.88—a textbook overbought signal), this looks like a classic "profit-taking" reversal after meteoric YTD gains.
Other Noteworthy Movers:
- JOHNHOLT +10.0%, REDSTAREX +9.99%, ACADEMY +9.98%—all posted strong technical momentum.
- Ella Lakes (ELLAHLAKES) tanked -10% despite a feverish RSI of 85.24 (potential exhaustion sell-off).
- JAPAULGOLD drew attention with both an unusual volume spike (+690% over 90D average) and a steep loss (-9.7%).

Momentum, Risk & Technical Readings

Bullish Momentum Standouts:
- ACADEMY: RSI at 83.12, up +9.98%, and price well above both 15D & 50D MAs—strong technical buy zones, but overextended; expect potential mean reversion.
- VSPBONDETF: Strong MACD crossover, big move after consolidation, and negative beta—suggesting decorrelation from broad market.
- REDSTAREX displayed both a price breakout above its 15DMA and a 6.12% yield, appealing to both growth and income investors.
Bearish Momentum Signals:
- PZ Cussons (PZ): Dropped below 15DMA (-11.11% today), with significant institutional sell flows and MACD trending negative.
- LINKASSURE (Linkage Assurance): RSI fell from 64 to 56.9, price sank -3.33% (now below 15DMA) despite an eye-catching 5.56% yield.
Unusual Volume Movers:
- JAPAULGOLD: Volume nearly 7x normal, but price dropped; massive rotation or unwinding at play.
- CONHALLPLC and WAPIC: Insurance names continue to draw speculative activity—watch for aftershocks.
Turnover Downturn: With value traded down -64% and institutional participation still 76.7% of today's value, it signals the "smart money" may be sitting on the sidelines—participants should be alert for ensuing volatility.

Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance Table

Symbol	Name	YTD %Chg	5D %Chg	Dividend Yield	RSI
CHAMPION	Champion Brew. Plc	246.46%	32.00%	0.41%	80.88
FTNCOCOA	FTN Cocoa Processors	148.40%	27.60%	1.60%	81.55
UPDC	UPDC Plc	173.99%	45.85%	34.25%	76.13
ELLAHLAKES	Ellah Lakes Plc	169.10%	6.02%	0.00%	85.24
SCOA	SCOA Nigeria	135.92%	-9.83%	3.40%	29.92
GREENWETF	Greenwich Asset ETF	-58.10%	-18.99%	0.00%	17.25
SUNUASSUR	SUNU Assurances	-57.08%	-2.72%	0.99%	46.88
DANGCEM	Dangote Cement	-11.24%	-3.41%	6.27%	40.05
BUACEMENT	BUA Cement	-0.54%	-3.04%	2.11%	60.75
HMCALL	Haldane McCall Plc	-17.86%	-4.76%	0.00%	30.32

Contrarian Signals

CHAMPION: Despite a dramatic 246.5% YTD surge and ongoing bullish MACD, the 10% crash today & RSI at 80.88 ("overbought") hints at exhaustion—contrarians watch for further pullback.
SCOA: YTD performance is strong (135.9%), yet RSI at 29.9 (oversold) and 5D -9.83% dip indicates temporary capitulation; technically attractive for "buy-the-dip" traders.
BUACEMENT: Price below 15DMA, soft YTD (-0.54%), but positive MACD and healthy institutional flows—possible reversal candidate if sector sentiment improves.
PZ: Ongoing heavy institutional trading, yet a negative day, declining trend and rising RSI—signals ongoing battle between long-term support and short-term profit-taking.

Sector Heatmap

Sector	Example Ticker	Perf (Today)	15D/50D MA Trend	Institutional Activity	Technical Rating
ETF/Bonds	VSPBONDETF	+67.10%	15DMA > 50DMA	Low	Bullish
Insurance	WAPIC/CONHALLPLC	Mixed	Many above 15DMA	Growing	Speculative/Bullish
Banking	GTCO/ACCESSCORP/ZENITHBANK	Flat	Above 15DMA	High	Defensive/Neutral
Personal/Household	PZ	-10.0%	Below 15DMA	Very High	Bearish
Building Materials	BUACEMENT/DANGCEM	Weak	Below 15DMA	Solid	Bearish/Contrarian

Dividend-Beta Matrix

Ticker	Dividend Yield	Beta	Risk Profiling
REDSTAREX	6.12%	0.21	Low risk, high income—defensive
DANGCEM	6.27%	1.94	High yield, high risk—volatile
UPDC	34.25%	1.10	Extremely high yield, moderate risk, but watch sustainability
ZENITHBANK	2.25%	1.20	Banking, moderate risk
AFRIPRUD (illustrative)	1.27%	0.64	Defensive

Implication: REDSTAREX stands out as a low-beta, high-yield play—potential safe haven if volatility picks up. UPDC offers "value trap or bonanza"—investigate further.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

ZENITHBANK: Institutional flows claimed 20.17% of trade value—indicating significant interest. This bank remains a bellwether for market sentiment and resilience.
PZ Cussons: Saw immense institutional (and retail) rotation with over -10% drop and 803% volume above average—high conviction profit-taking or risk-off move.
GTCO, ACCESSCORP: Remain institutional favorites, but volumes are lower than average—suggests wait-and-see stance among asset managers.

Retail vs Institutional Trading Patterns & Activity

Retail investors dominated trade count by volume (59.2% of deals), but institutionals controlled larger blocks (53% by volume; 76.7% of value), signaling continued "big money" influence.
Institutional Top 5: PZ, GTCO, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, JAPAULGOLD.
- PZ's concentration among institutionals with an outsized volume signals sector de-risking.
- JAPAULGOLD—present in both institutional and retail top 5 with huge volume—potential "toppy" or rotational.
Retail Top 5: ELLAHLAKES, JAPAULGOLD, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, ZENITHBANK—mirrors broad market favorites, but with greater speculative flavor (e.g., ELLAHLAKES).
Insights & Patterns:
- Stocks with both institutional and retail high turnover (e.g., GTCO, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, JAPAULGOLD) tend to be more volatile and can see sharp moves if sentiment shifts.
- The sharp value drop in turnover vs. steady volumes suggests profit booking or hesitation—expect short-term volatility spikes.

Trader Suggestions & Notable Opportunities

Bullish crossovers with strong momentum (e.g., ACADEMY, REDSTAREX, VSPBONDETF): Momentum traders can look for "buy-the-dip" opportunities, but beware high RSI levels.
Contrarian Buy Zones: SCOA, DANGCEM, and even BUACEMENT—oversold on technicals, but fundamentally viable.
Bullish Dividend Defensives: REDSTAREX (high yield, low beta) could serve as a buffer in volatile periods.
Bearish momentum picks: LINKASSURE, PZ (both below 15DMA, heavy institutional selling)—consider short/interim sell or monitoring for reversal.
Monitor JAPAULGOLD for reversal: Massive volume spike with high RSI and price drop; often a precursor to further volatility or quick rebounds.
Reduce risk in highly overbought stocks: e.g., CHAMPION, ACADEMY, FTNCOCOA, MEYER (all with RSI > 80)—trim positions/consider stop orders.

Hidden insights: ETF breakouts are driving some of today’s biggest percentage moves, often with little fundamental "news"—classic sign of speculative digestion and asset rotation. Defensive income stocks (REDSTAREX) quietly gaining momentum. Large declines in turnover and upcoming sector divergence set the stage for a potential regime shift—stay vigilant for next week’s direction.

Disclaimer: This market summary has been generated using InfoWARE's advanced AI tools and data analysis techniques. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability, this content should be used for informational purposes only and should not constitute financial advice. Always consult a professional advisor before making investment decisions.

Top ASI Gainers Over Last 5 Trading Days

Symbol	Price	%Chg5Dys	%Chg1Dy	%ChgWTD	%ChgMTD	%ChgQTD	%ChgYTD
VSPBONDETF	310.00	67.10	67.10	67.10	67.10	67.10	48.00
RTBRISCOE	3.32	46.00	9.94	46.00	32.73	32.73	32.73
UPDC	4.31	45.85	9.98	45.85	32.77	32.77	173.99
MEYER	13.35	45.77	9.74	45.77	32.58	32.58	73.78
INTENEGINS	2.17	38.60	9.22	38.60	31.67	31.67	26.74
CHAMPION	12.00	32.00	10.00	32.00	32.00	32.00	246.46
LOTUSHAL15	39.00	29.85	9.87	29.85	19.03	19.03	42.83
FTNCOCOA	4.86	27.60	-3.91	27.60	16.17	16.17	148.40
MBENEFIT	1.44	27.27	-2.78	27.27	15.70	15.70	129.51
OMATEK	0.96	24.66	-5.21	24.66	13.75	13.75	13.75

Top ASI Losers Over Last 5 Trading Days

Symbol	Price	%Chg5Dys	%Chg1Dy	%ChgWTD	%ChgMTD	%ChgQTD	%ChgYTD
GREENWETF	223.73	-18.99	0.00	-18.99	-19.00	-19.00	-58.10
PZ	36.00	-14.74	-10.00	-14.74	-7.43	-7.43	33.33
SCOA	4.86	-9.83	0.00	-9.83	0.00	0.00	135.92
NEWGOLD	52,000.00	-7.56	5.77	-7.56	-1.79	-1.79	88.99
HMCALL	4.00	-4.76	0.00	-4.76	0.00	0.00	-17.86
MULTIVERSE	8.45	-3.43	0.00	-3.43	0.00	0.00	4.97
DANGCEM	425.00	-3.41	0.00	-3.41	0.00	0.00	-11.24
BUACEMENT	93.40	-3.04	-0.96	-3.04	-3.04	-3.04	-0.54
SUNUASSUR	4.99	-2.72	0.20	-2.72	0.20	0.20	-57.08
LINKASSURE	1.55	-2.60	-3.23	-2.60	-3.23	-3.23	16.28

For more detailed analysis, on InfoWARE Market Data Terminal <NSEPERF> <GO>
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VETIVA S & P NIGERIA SOVEREIGN BOND ETF (VSPBONDETF) topped the advancers list closing at N518.00 with a gain of 67.10% followed by CHAMPION BREW. PLC. (CHAMPION) which closed at N13.20 with a gain of 10.00%.

On the flip side ELLAH LAKES PLC. (ELLAHLAKES) and P Z CUSSONS NIGERIA PLC. (PZ) topped the decliners log with a loss of -10.00% at a close of N8.10, and -10.00% to close the day at N32.40 respectively.

Top Gainers

Symbol	LClose	%Chg
VSPBONDETF	518.00	67.10
CHAMPION	13.20	10.00
JOHNHOLT	7.70	10.00
REDSTAREX	8.37	9.99
ACADEMY	6.17	9.98

Top Losers

Symbol	LClose	%Chg
ELLAHLAKES	8.10	-10.00
PZ	32.40	-10.00
JAPAULGOLD	2.70	-9.70
ROYALEX	1.24	-9.49
MCNICHOLS	2.78	-8.85

For more detailed analysis,

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Currency Market

In the currency market, the Naira appreciated 0.33%(5.08) against the Dollar to settle at 1 to 1

Investment Insights - Top 5 Gainers YTD

These stocks are the best performers whose price has risen faster than the market as a whole with the best returns year to date. Momentum investors believe that stocks that have outperformed the market will often continue to do so because the factors that caused them to outperform will not suddenly disappear. In addition, other investors seeking to benefit from the stock’s outperformance will often purchase the stock, further bidding its price higher and pushing the stock higher still

For more detailed analysis,

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NSE: Bull Signal - Price crossed above 15 Day MA

This signal implies these stocks are under buying pressure and the price might continue to rise and therefore positions should be monitored closely. Further suggested analysis include looking at the overall market (ASI) to see if the uptrend is market wide, sector wide or specific to the stock. Portfolio managers tend to use this as a signal to do more research to add to their positions or lock in some profits. Typically further analysis should be done using commands like PC and RV on the InfoWARE Market Data Terminal. Another command is ALERTS to set price triggers for possible exit or entry as necessary

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Symbol	Price	%Chg	15DMA	PE	EPS	DivY	MktCap	Vol	Trades	Value	LstTradeTime
VSPBONDETF	518.00	40.15	332.63			0.00	0.00	2.00	1.00	1.04K	04-Jul-2025 14:32:13.283
REDSTAREX	8.37	9.08	7.71	5.93	0.74	6.12	7.99B	370.79K	38.00	3.10M	04-Jul-2025 14:30:44.397
ARADEL	530.00	2.83	522.10	0.00	0.00	1.72	2,302.77B	737.82K	361.00	390.30M	04-Jul-2025 14:30:35.240
ETI	31.00	1.61	30.76	5.00	5.10	2.00	568.84B	1.71M	57.00	52.78M	04-Jul-2025 14:32:11.567
NGXOILGAS	2,463.47	0.80	2,459.69	8.74	228.15	0.00	0.00	660.72K	330.00	91.46M	04-Jul-2025 14:31:08.353
SUNUASSUR	5.00	0.20	4.99	0.00	0.00	0.99	29.05B	1.13M	49.00	5.66M	04-Jul-2025 14:30:45.827

NSE: BEAR Signal - Price crossed below 15 Day MA

This signal implies these stocks are under selling pressure and the price might continue to slide and therefore positions should be monitored closely. Further suggested analysis include looking at the overall market (ASI) to see if the downtrend is market wide, sector wide or specific to the stock. If the overal market trend is upwards, then since these stocks are heading in the opposite direction, then further analysis should be done using commands like PC and RV on the InfoWARE Market Data Terminal. Another command is ALERTS to set price triggers for possible exit is necessar

For more detailed analysis,

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Symbol	Price	%Chg	15DMA	PE	EPS	DivY	MktCap	Vol	Trades	Value	LstTradeTime
NGXINDUSTR	3,576.17	-0.94	3,595.20	39.90	18.97	0.00	0.00	18.01M	1,884.00	428.40M	04-Jul-2025 14:31:07.590
BUACEMENT	92.50	-0.97	93.41	0.00	0.00	2.11	3,132.45B	592.40K	257.00	54.01M	04-Jul-2025 14:30:35.943
AIICO	1.60	-1.88	1.61	2.01	0.60	4.13	58.57B	15.96M	309.00	25.64M	04-Jul-2025 14:30:35.017
LINKASSURE	1.50	-3.33	1.52	59.89	0.02	5.56	21.00B	6.78M	54.00	10.49M	04-Jul-2025 14:30:40.693
PZ	32.40	-11.11	35.75	44.17	0.50	4.59	128.64B	19.44M	644.00	635.73M	04-Jul-2025 14:30:44.230

Economic Indicators - Nigeria FX Reserves Vs ASI Chart

Nigeria FX Reserves are assets held on reserve by CBN in foreign currencies. These reserves are used to back liabilities and influence monetary policy. Given the nature of the Nigeria economy, FX Reserves can appear to have an outsize influence on the economy and hence on the capital market. The chart below allows comparison of FX Reserves against the ASI to make investment decisions

For more detailed analysis,

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Market Trend - ASI (NGX All-Share-Index) With 50 & 200 Day MAvgs Chart

Technical traders typically use the 50 & 200 day moving averages to aid in choosing where to enter or exit a position, which then causes these levels to act as strong support or resistance. As a general guideline, if the price is above a moving average, the trend is up. If the price is below a moving average, the trend is down.
It is important to note that critics of technical analysis say that moving averages act as support and resistance because so many traders use these indicators to inform their trading decisions. Also moving averages tend to work quite well in strong trending conditions but poorly in choppy or ranging conditions.
Trading Strategies: Crossovers
Crossovers are one of the main moving average strategies. The first type is a price crossover, which is when the price crosses above or below a moving average to signal a potential change in trend. Another strategy is to apply two moving averages to a chart: one longer and one shorter. When the shorter-term MA crosses above the longer-term MA, it is a buy signal, as it indicates that the trend is shifting up. This is known as a golden cross. Meanwhile, when the shorter-term MA crosses below the longer-term MA, it is a sell signal, as it indicates that the trend is shifting down. This is known as a dead/death cross

For more detailed analysis,

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Unusual Volume: Volume traded is more than double the 90 day moving average (All exchanges; ASI & ASem). For more detailed analysis,

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Symbol	Name	Volume	90DAvgVol	%VolChg	Price	LClose	%Chg	Trades	Value
JAPAULGOLD	JAPAUL GOLD & VENTURES PLC	147.08M	18.61M	690.40	2.70	2.99	-9.70	1,075	421.62M
WAPIC	WAPIC INSURANCE PLC	44.53M	4.59M	870.28	2.50	2.31	8.23	147	94.59M
CONHALLPLC	CONSOLIDATED HALLMARK INSURANCE PLC	42.81M	2.45M	1,649.83	3.00	3.00	0.00	309	122.42M
CHAMS	CHAMS PLC	42.01M	11.01M	281.67	2.47	2.50	-1.20	554	107.89M
FTNCOCOA	FTN COCOA PROCESSORS PLC	33.38M	7.59M	340.07	4.67	4.86	-3.91	694	153.75M

Investment Insights - High Div. Stocks

Dividend stocks distribute a portion of the company earnings to investors on a regular basis and they can a great choice for investors looking for regular income. As an investment or trading strategy, high dividend yield equities provide annual cash payments as against mostly capital gains in the price of a stock. The list in the table below represent the highest dividend paying stocks from the list of the most liquid stocks in the NSE top 30.

For more detailed analysis,

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Investment Insights - Stocks outperforming the ASI but with approximately the same risk

These list of stocks represent equities that are less risky than the ASI but doing better than the ASI (All Shares Index) using the YTD (Year to Date) returns as the measure. The risk is measured by Beta. Beta is an assessment of a stock's tendency to undergo price changes, (its volatility), as well as its potential returns compared to the ASI. It is expressed as a ratio, where a score of 1 represents performance comparable to the ASI, and returns above or below the market may receive scores greater or lower than 1.

For a full list of both positively and negatively corelated stocks visit InfoWARE Market Data Terminal

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Symbol	DivYield	PE	EPS	Beta	%ChgYTD	ASIYTDReturn	BetaDiff
HONYFLOUR	1.40	16.28	0.31	0.99	269.94	17.26	0.01
CAVERTON	5.52	1.15	1.57	0.98	170.59	17.26	0.02
FIDELITYBK	5.48	13.24	1.17	0.89	17.65	17.26	0.11
FTNCOCOA	1.60	0.00	0.00	0.79	148.40	17.26	0.21
NB	3.79	16.95	1.60	0.79	94.84	17.26	0.21
MAYBAKER	3.75	58.94	0.14	0.78	79.79	17.26	0.22
UNILEVER	2.81	67.09	0.40	0.75	57.92	17.26	0.25
VETGOODS	0.00			0.71	57.62	17.26	0.29
CUTIX	6.52	8.81	0.26	0.70	58.10	17.26	0.30
Ikejahotel	0.94	51.55	0.16	0.70	45.34	17.26	0.30

African Markets

Name	LClose	Change	%Chg
BRVM Stock Exchange	308.28	2.14	0.70
Botswana Stock Exchange	10,404.95	0.00	0.00
Egyptian Exchange	32,820.49	114.47	0.35
Ghana Stock Exchange	6,347.47	101.19	1.62
Johannesburg Stock Exchange	96,937.03	328.47	0.34
Lusaka Stock Exchange	20,148.95	4.03	0.02
Casablanca Stock Exchange	18,590.45	72.22	0.39
Malawi Stock Exchange	333,064.71	963.09	0.29
Nigeria Stock Exchange	120,977.20	637.80	0.53
Nairobi Securities Exchange	160.13	2.27	1.44
Namibian Stock Exchange	1,803.85	5.57	0.31
Tunis Stock Exchange	11,586.30	11.57	0.10
Uganda Securities Exchange	1,304.15	5.07	0.39

Nigeria Market Indexes

Symbol	LClose	%Chg	WTD%	MTD%	QTD%	YTD%	Trades
ASI	120,990.27	0.01	0.84	1.04	1.04	17.26	23,872
NGX30	4,447.74	-0.02	0.56	-5.84	-5.84	16.59	9,115
NGXAFRBVI	3,007.83	-0.21	1.69	-15.12	-15.12	21.24	3,944
NGXAFRHDYI	20,179.72	0.08	3.54	-3.51	-3.51	18.51	4,440
NGXASEM	1,597.18	0.00	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.85	15
NGXBNK	1,296.02	-0.13	1.22	-14.22	-14.22	19.18	4,084
NGXCG	3,487.87	-0.21	1.48	1.43	1.43	23.28	10,041
NGXCNSMRGDS	2,721.95	0.24	3.27	-21.53	-21.53	56.94	3,269
NGXCOMMDTY	1,052.74	0.51	0.53	0.52	0.52	5.27
NGXGROWTH	9,879.07	-0.53	4.87	3.89	3.89	27.26	398
NGXINDUSTR	3,576.17	-0.93	-1.70	1.51	1.51	0.13	1,884
NGXINS	794.28	1.33	5.13	7.54	7.54	1.03	1,574
NGXLOTUSISLM	9,339.12	0.37	1.19	-2.46	-2.46	34.03	2,401
NGXMAINBOARD	5,975.64	0.10	1.47	1.30	1.30	19.42	19,477
NGXMERIGRW	8,365.07	0.51	2.65	-13.33	-13.33	28.23	3,105
NGXMERIVAL	11,462.27	-0.36	2.80	-4.06	-4.06	9.89	4,678
NGXOILGAS	2,463.47	0.80	1.07	2.98	2.98	-9.14	330
NGXPENBRD	2,191.84	0.01	0.55	-4.67	-4.67	19.67	16,495
NGXPENSION	5,862.49	0.05	1.10	-7.74	-7.74	29.30	11,190
NGXPREMIUM	11,529.95	-0.17	-0.41	0.52	0.52	18.46	3,997
NGXSOVBND	654.79	0.00	0.27	0.20	0.20	8.85	0

For more detailed analysis,

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