Nigerian Equity Market Recap – Wednesday, July 23, 2025

The NGX All Share Index eked out a modest +0.08% gain today, closing at 132,451.73 despite a notable slump in trading turnover (-39.64%) compared to the previous session. Market breadth reflects a slightly bearish undercurrent, with 34 advancers versus 40 decliners (0.85x), and market activity contracting as both trading volume and deals declined. Institutional investors maintained a firm grip on traded value (accounting for nearly 87% of daily turnover), yet retail activity dominated trade count. Stocks showed sharp divergences—with ETFs sparkling alongside select insurance and industrial names, while several small caps languished. Notably, the momentum tables and unusual volume signals reveal hidden crosscurrents worth close observation.

Market Breadth & Activity: Key Trends

• Breadth Rogues: Despite the index’s green close, decliners outnumbered advancers (40 vs 34), suggesting that gains were concentrated and the broader market remains cautious.
• Turnover Drop: Value traded plunged from ₦24.77B to ₦14.96B (-39.64%), with volume down to 625.86M units. This drop signals reduced institutional conviction or a wait-and-see approach as investors digest recent moves.
• Volume Swings: 66 stocks recorded volume gains, while a larger portion, 74 stocks, saw volume slide. This uneven participation hints at selective sector or stock rotations.

Daily Top Gainers & Losers

• GREENWETF (ETF) and LOTUSHAL15 (Sharia ETF): Both surged 10%, highlighting strong institutional ETF demand, but with GREENWETF’s RSI at 35.9—still not "overbought”.
• TIP (Initiates Plc) advanced 9.98%, now with an extreme RSI of 84.9, inviting potential caution from momentum chasers.
• AUSTINLAZ and TRIPPLEG tanked nearly 10% each–with TRIPPLEG at a severely overbought RSI (97.2), suggesting long positions could be at risk of quick reversals.

YTD Performance: Top 5 Gainers and Losers

• Stand-out: TIP (+433.6% YTD, RSI 84.9) — both a daily and YTD chart-topper, but caution: RSI points toward overextension.
• DAARCOMM, OMATEK, MCNICHOLS: Among top daily losers and YTD underperformers—bearish momentum likely entrenched.

Analytical Insights & Forward Look

• Turnover Drop-Off: With turnover plunging nearly 40%, liquidity is being pulled from the market. Historically, such drops can precede sentiment pivots or periods of higher volatility as investors await clearer cues.
• Narrow Gains, Broad Declines: The small positive close—despite more decliners (40) than advancers (34)—confirms that wins are being driven by large-caps and ETFs rather than broad participation, portending fragility.
• Unusual Volume: ELLAHLAKES, ROYALEX, LEGENDINT, REGALINS, LASACO all traded at more than twice their 90-day average volume, often amid price drops—classic distribution/sell-off warning signs.
• Bullish Momentum:
  • TIP shines with RSI 84.9, bullish MACD and well above both 15D and 50D MAs. But RSI is now "overbought”; risk of correction rises.
  • ACADEMY: Price crossed above 15DMA; RSI mid-50s and MACD positive but lagging the sharp gain. Watch for follow-through.
  • LOTUSHAL15: RSI 75+ and deeply positive MACD—a candidate for momentum-driven continuation but susceptible to sharp profit-taking.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • DAARCOMM, OMATEK: Both daily and YTD underperformers, both showing persistent RSI in the mid-50s. Still room for more downside — especially as both also show below-15DMA price action and negative sentiment.
  • TRIPPLEG, AUSTINLAZ: Despite sharply negative daily moves, both have RSI in extreme overbought territory (97+!) — a contrarian signal (see below) that a technical correction or bounce may be brewing.

Contrarian Signals: Conflicting Indicators Worth Noting

• TRIPPLEG & AUSTINLAZ: Sharply negative price, yet RSI at 97+—rarely sustainable for long. These could snap back, especially if short sellers start covering or value-hunters step in.
• GREENWETF: Top percentage gainer, yet low RSI (35.9); indicates today’s move may be the start of a reversal rather than the end of a run.
• LOTUSHAL15: RSI of 75.2—approaching "overbought”—but MACD signal line and strong upward 15D/50D MA crossover underscore accumulating momentum.
• OMATEK: Despite a negative day and being in the YTD losers table, still shows a mid-60s RSI—uncertain momentum; further caution warranted.

Sector Performance & Defensive Plays (Heatmap Excerpts)

• Defensive Playbook: CUTIX and FIDSON offer reasonable yields at low-to-moderate betas—potential sector rotation targets should market volatility rise.
• Insurance Sector: Watch closely—major names showed unusual volumes and price dips, potential capitulation signals or, conversely, value entry points.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• Trading value highly clustered in select large banks (ACCESSCORP, GTCO, UBA, ZENITHBANK). Notably, institutional investors dominated both the trade value and volumes, accounting for 86.7% of traded value but just 38.2% of trades.
• ACCESSCORP attracted the largest share of institutional volume and value, indicating a "smart money” preference—watch for possible trends or block trades in coming sessions.

Dividend Yield Intersections with Momentum

• MCNICHOLS: High dividend (5.88%), but flagged in both top YTD losers and bearish momentum list. Caution: yield is no safety net when price action is sharply negative.
• DANGSUGAR: Attractive dividend, strong momentum and a top YTD gainer—watch for profit-taking as its RSI climbs into the 70s.
• CUTIX: Offers both a high yield and recent bullish momentum, with a strong base forming above its 15DMA.

Trading Suggestions

• Traders: Momentum names with extreme RSI readings (TIP, LOTUSHAL15) should be approached with trailing stops—momentum exhaustion can produce sharp reversals.
• Defensive rotation: For lower volatility, consider names with high dividend and low-moderate beta such as CUTIX and FIDSON.
• Bargain hunting caution: Don’t rush into high-yield "falling knives” (MCNICHOLS); combine yield with positive relative strength and improving price action.
• Volatility watch: Expect wider swings as liquidity thins out and if institutional flows shift direction.
• Retail/Institutional Diversion: Retail activity is fragmented, but institutional volumes centered on financials and industrials. Watch for institutional-led breakouts or breakdowns.

Market Activity: Retail vs Institutional Insights

• Institutions controlled 70.7% of volume and 86.7% of value, but only 38.2% of total trades. This hints at large, chunky block trades—especially in top banks and industrials.
• Retail investors executed the majority of trade count (61.8%) but only a third of market volume—suggesting high churn in smaller, possibly speculative names without moving overall value substantially.
• Top 5 Institutional Volumes:
  ACCESSCORP (93.8M units), WAPCO (7.8M), UBA (15.8M), GTCO (11.3M), OANDO (15.2M).
  • Pattern: All heavyweights; most saw moderate-to-positive daily moves (ACCESSCORP +3.6%, GTCO +0.2%, UBA flat) except WAPCO (-4.3%), where institutional sellers may be exiting strength.
• Top 5 Retail Volumes:
  ACCESSCORP (4.8M), UBA (2.5M), GTCO (0.9M), DANGSUGAR (1.7M), ZENITHBANK (1.3M).
  • Pattern: Overlaps with the institutional favorites, showing both sets of investors are most active in liquid, large-cap names. Minor banks/industrials are "crowded”—breakouts or reversals may be amplified.
• Correlation Watch: Stocks with high retail and institutional volume often coincide with technical breakouts or impending volatility. Institutions’ relative value stability contrasts with retail’s trade count dominance—watch for shifting participation as a volatility trigger.