NGX Daily Market Summary – Friday, October 10, 2025

Market Wrap: It was an upbeat close to the week on the NGX, as the All Share Index (ASI) gained 0.54% to finish at 146,204.34. However, beneath the green headline, the tone was more nuanced: declines outpaced advances (25 advancers vs 31 decliners), yielding a narrow market breadth of 0.81x. A sharp -59.73% dip in turnover (₦10.45B, down from ₦25.95B) highlights a risk-off sentiment among institutional investors, but overall trading volume rose on the day, buoyed by spikes in certain mid-tier names and selected insurance plays. The YTD performance remains robust at +42.46%, underscoring a still-buoyant market for patient investors.

Key Market Breadth & Trends

• Market Breadth: Decliners (31) outnumbered gainers (25), suggesting the upward move was driven by a few heavyweights rather than broad strength.
• Volume vs Value: Daily traded volume increased to 385.51M shares (+18.6% vs. previous day), but traded value slumped sharply, as institutional focus shifted to lower-priced names and as block trades dried up.
• Unusual Volume: LIVINGTRUST (+2647.7%), MEYER (+298.7%), CHAMS (+119.1%), ETERNA (+121.3%) stood out, signaling either block accumulation/distribution or potential catalytic events. Keep these names on your active radar.
• Retail vs Institutional Flow:
  • Retail: 61.99% of trade count, but only 13.48% of value
  • Institutional: 86.52% by value, focused on DANGCEM, ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, and ARADEL

Top Gainers and Losers – Intra-Day Focus

• DANGCEM powered gains (institutional flows), with a +6.48% jump and strong momentum signals (RSI 55.7, MACD 7.12) supported by above-average institutional volume.
• Notable downside: MERVALUE ETF -10.0% (and also YTD laggard), MEYER -9.85% (unusual volume), and STERLINGNG -9.58%—the last two displaying distribution after a period of speculative accumulation.
• LIVINGTRUST not on top gainers/losers but flagged for 2647.7% volume spike; price dipped -2.80%—suggesting possible unwinding or large block activity.

Momentum Watch: Bullish & Bearish Signals

• Bullish 15DMA Crossovers: NEM (Insurance), JAIZBANK (Banking), FTNCOCOA (Crop Processing), MBENEFIT (Insurance), ACADEMY (Printing), VERITASKAP (Insurance).
  • These names are seeing buying support; insurance stands out for sector-wide momentum.
• Bearish 15DMA Cross-downs: STERLINGNG, NEWGOLD, CORNERST, WAPIC, GUINEAINS, etc.—selling pressure is strongest in Insurance and select Financials. STERLINGNG is a repeat YTD and recent loser.
• RSI Perspective:
  • No names in overbought (RSI > 70) nor oversold (RSI < 30) territory, but EUNISELL, MECURE, MTNN, and SOVRENINS (all recent outperformers) hover above 54 and should be monitored for potential profit-taking/reversal.
  • LIVINGTRUST (YTD loser, unusual volume, RSI ~51)—could be at the beginning of a recovery or more selling.
• MACD:
  • DANGCEM's MACD (7.12 vs 5.29 signal) is clearly bullish and supported by volume; MERVALUE deepens into bearish territory (-8.16 MACD).

Year-To-Date (YTD) Top Gainers & Losers

• MEYER, STERLINGNG, LIVINGTRUST, MERVALUE—consistently appearing across both top YTD losers and today's heavy volume/change lists. Expect heightened volatility and caution; possible mean reversion opportunities.
• DANGCEM appears among top recent gainers with heavy institutional trade, suggesting strong market-maker interest.
• SOVRENINS combines strong YTD gains, above-average RSI, and healthy dividend yield (3.75%)—defensive momentum in Insurance.
• Sector rotation? Insurers (NEM, MBENEFIT, VERITASKAP, SOVRENINS) make multiple technical "bullish" lists—evidence of rotation within financials.

Contrarian Signals

• MEYER PLC: -9.85% YTD and -9.85% today, but RSI is 51.6 and MACD is positive (0.13)—suggesting a potential technical rebound or that selling pressure may be overdone.
• STERLINGNG: Appears as one of the top YTD losers and closes down -9.58% today with bearish momentum (below 15DMA), yet RSI remains elevated (57.8). Oversold, or value trap? Wait-and-see.
• MERVALUE ETF: Dumps heavily today and is firmly negative YTD, but with a low RSI (40.0)—contrarian money may begin to take a closer look.
• DANGCEM: Strong positive price action & indicators, but Beta is very high (1.94), so expect volatility swings.

Sector Heatmap Snapshot

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Buys?)

• NEM & SOVRENINS: High dividend yields, solid momentum signals, relatively low Beta—potential safe havens/candidate for defensive accumulation.
• FIDELITYBK: Tempting yield but price action is bearish—wait for stabilization.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• DANGCEM: Institutional trades account for 45% of volume and nearly 9.6% of total traded value—a decisive vote of confidence and driver of index movement.
• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional value share; also top for retail activity. Despite index weight, ZENITHBANK’s price slipped -1.01%—potential profit-taking.
• ARADEL, UBA, ACCESSCORP: Institutions rotated into ARADEL and UBA. ACCESS stagnated, implying perspectives diverge by risk appetite.

Notable Overlaps & Hidden Insights

• STERLINGNG, MEYER, LIVINGTRUST: Present in both YTD losers and today’s highest-selling names by volume and percent change, with bearish technical crossovers. Momentum traders should be cautious—volatility is likely to persist.
• Insurance: NEM, MBENEFIT, VERITASKAP, SOVRENINS all on bullish lists and with dividend yields above 2.5%—supporting sector-wide accumulation for income-seeking investors.

Trader Playbook & Suggestions

• Focus on momentum names with institutional interest—DANGCEM, NEM, SOVRENINS. Institutional clustering and bullish technicals suggest further gains if market participation continues.
• Beware value traps— names like STERLINGNG and MEYER need to prove support holds before considering contrarian (mean-reversion) trades, despite their unusually high volume.
• Defensive rotation— Insurance sector, especially dividend-payers (NEM, SOVRENINS), offers a blend of income and relative outperformance.
• Monitor funds/ETF space— Aggressive selling in MERVALUE and NEWGOLD may offer swing-trade opportunities for bold contrarians as RSI approaches oversold.
• Retail strategy: With retail investors comprising 62% of trades but only 13% of value, stick to high-liquidity, institutional-backed names to avoid "pump-and-dump" scenarios in speculative small caps.

Retail vs. Institutional Trade Patterns & Correlations

• Most traded institutional stocks: DANGCEM, ARADEL, ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP—also among those with greatest price impact and technical momentum, reaffirming data-led conviction trading.
• Most traded retail stocks: MTNN, ZENITHBANK, STERLINGNG, ACCESSCORP, UBA—retail flow often follows or amplifies institutional moves.
• Overlap: ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA actively traded across both groups, increasing relevance for both short-term momentum and long-term accumulation strategies.
• Disparity: Retail focus on MTNN (defensive/telecom) vs. institutional on DANGCEM (cyclical/building). Watch for sectoral shifts if risk sentiment changes.

Summary & Forward-Looking Insights

• Despite today’s index gain, market breadth was negative—be selective; avoid chasing broad-based rallies until participation widens.
• Financials (esp. insurance), some building materials, and select telecommunications stocks are the focal points for new money and sector rotation.
• Turnover drop signals growing caution—likely ahead of external events or expected volatility. Watch next week for confirmation of trend.
• Volume spikes in YTD laggards (LIVINGTRUST, MEYER) suggest possible shakeouts—sharp bounces or further falls possible.
• For income-seekers, insurance sector offers rare combination of decent yield and positive technical momentum in current market backdrop.