NGX Market Summary – Wednesday, October 29, 2025

The Nigerian equities market saw a sharp pullback today, with the NGX All Share Index declining by -0.70% to close at 155,353.20. This pause comes after an impressive 49.51% YTD performance. Market turnover sank by -44.08% to ₦11.95B, signaling waning conviction. Breadth was notably weak, with only 22 advancers versus 49 decliners (0.45x), and a modest decrease in traded volume. Highly unusual volumes on select stocks and mixed technical signals hint at cross-currents now in play — just as some YTD gainers flash overbought, while high-yield names are starting to flag risk aversion. Let’s dive deeper.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Breadth: 0.45x with decliners outpacing advancers 49 to 22 — typical in a broad-based pullback and suggesting correction mode.
• Turnover: Plummeted by -44.08% vs previous day. High conviction trades evaporated, and reduced liquidity can amplify volatility in coming sessions.
• YTD Performance: Despite today’s drop, the NGX ASI remains robust at 49.51% YTD, keeping the longer-term uptrend alive for now.
• Adv/Dec Stock Volumes: 61 stocks saw volume up, 80 down, confirming broad disengagement.

Top Gainers & Losers At A Glance

• ASO SAVINGS (ASOSAVINGS): 8.86% gain today, and a YTD of 72.00%, with RSI of 90.56 suggesting a heavily overbought/overextended condition. Unusual trading volume (8x 90-day average) suggests speculative froth.
• JOHN HOLT (JOHNHOLT): Suffered -10.00% today and is also a YTD top loser (-30.68%), with RSI at 25.38 (very oversold), which could attract bottom-fishing but caution is warranted.
• DEAPCAP: Featured on both the top gainer list and the bullish momentum table (crossed above 15DMA), indicating short-term accumulation.
• TANTALIZERS (TANTALIZER): Showed a 978% surge in traded volume, placing it squarely on the "unusual volume" radar.

YTD Top Gainers & Losers Table

Momentum Analysis

• Bullish Momentum (above 15DMA cross): DEAPCAP remains a short-term bullish candidate, with a rapid price move (+8.84%), positive MACD, but RSI still moderate.
• Bearish Momentum (below 15DMA cross): FCMB, NGXINS, LINKASSURE, MAYBAKER, AFRIPRUD, AIICO, HONYFLOUR, CUSTODIAN, CORNERST, ETERNA, VETBANK all triggered bearish signals. Notably, AFRIPRUD combines a solid dividend yield (1.27%) with a bearish 15DMA cross and moderate beta (0.64).
• Overbought/Overextended: ASOSAVINGS has an extreme RSI of 90.56 (+72% YTD), suggesting a speculative spike; take caution as "mean reversion" risk rises. SOVRENINS approaches overbought (RSI 70.17, YTD +261%).
• Oversold: JOHNHOLT (RSI 25.38) and some YTD losers now look deeply discounted — reversal candidates for contrarians but also value traps if fundamentals are weak.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREW. PLC (CHAMPION): RSI near neutral at 50.59, MACD barely positive, yet -8.8% today and -9.8% YTD. Mixed technicals — neither oversold nor truly oversold, suggests indecision or fundamental headwinds despite some buying signals.
• AFRIPRUD: High dividend yield (1.27%) but bearish momentum signal (below 15DMA), moderate beta. Dividend support may cushion further downside, but technicals warn of possible short-term weakness.
• DEAPCAP: High single-day gain and bullish 15DMA cross, but moderate RSI and very high P/E (over 180); fundamental justification required — watch for reversal signal if volume dries up.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive & Income Plays

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value share, showing institutional clustering. However, technicals are deteriorating: recent negative momentum and large retail/institutional flows point to tug-of-war rather than clear direction. Watch for breakout above/below 15DMA for cues.
• ARADEL: Institutional trades dominated (₦2.58B, 17.15% of institutional value), on weakness (-7.94%) — likely major fund repositioning or profit taking.
• ACCESSCORP & GTCO: Both are favorites of both retail and institutional groups, but show diverging momentum recently, hinting at sector risk-off.

Trade Activity Insights: Retail vs Institutional

• Institutional investors accounted for 65.6% of volume and 86.47% of trade value, with only 38.7% of trade count. This points to large block trades, likely in blue chips.
• Retail investors dominate on number of trades (61.3%) but much lower volume and value, consistent with smaller ticket sizes and more speculative/volatile names.
• Top 5 Institutional Most Traded:
  • ARADEL (17.15% value share): Outsize flows but descending (-7.94%) — possible large-scale repositioning.
  • ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, MTNN: Traditional large-cap, sector-sensitive names. The bias is mixed (between small losses and slight gains) amidst the broad market pullback.
• Top 5 Retail Most Traded:
  • MTNN: Heavily traded, low net movement.
  • UBA, FCMB, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP: All major banking names, again emphasizing the continued dominance of financials in retail activity, but notable that several are on bearish momentum signals, suggesting risk for retail players.
• Pattern: The overlap of large caps between institutional and retail focus, combined with most on technically weakening signals, suggests a potential "handoff" from institutions to retail in late-cycle conditions — usually a caution flag for traders.

Stocks with Both High Dividend Yield & Momentum

• AFRIPRUD (1.27% yield, low beta of 0.64): Bearish momentum indicates possible further pullback ahead, but ongoing dividend support could create buy-the-dip opportunities for risk-averse investors.
• NEM (6.52% yield, 174.2% YTD): High flyer on strong momentum, but overbought — uptrend may continue short-term, but watch for pullbacks.
• CUSTODIAN (1.20% yield): Now flashing bearish, but defensive properties may attract dip buyers if the selloff deepens.

Unusual Volume & Hidden Insights

• TANTALIZER: Almost 10x its 90-day average traded volume, marking speculative frenzy (possibly short covering or news-driven). A typical "hot potato" — exercise caution.
• ASOSAVINGS: Volume up over 8x, price up 8.86%, YTD 72%. Warning: RSI at 90.56 is "maximum bullish", but danger of sharp reversal looms.
• BUACEMENT: 262% volume spike but price down slightly, suggesting churn without clear net buying pressure.
• CORNERST: On both the bearish momentum and unusual volume lists — signals strong, persistent distribution. Avoid.
• Speculative signals: High volume runners like TANTALIZER and speculative gainers like ASOSAVINGS are at risk of mean reversion. Cautious stance advisable.

Outlook & Suggestions for Traders

• Breadth and liquidity are deteriorating: Fewer stocks are leading while decliners expand — classic late-stage trend behavior. Tighten stops and reduce leverage.
• Look for reversal in oversold/overbought YTD names:
  • Oversold: JOHNHOLT is a candidate (RSI < 30, -10% today), but avoid catching "falling knives" unless reversal is confirmed.
  • Overbought: SOVRENINS & ASOSAVINGS: Consider partial profit-taking; chasing here exposes one to whipsaw risk.
• Defensive Income: Stocks with lower beta and solid yield (AFRIPRUD, NEM) could outperform if volatility rises further, though technicals in the short run are bearish.
• Follow sector and technical cues: Most bearish momentum names are in Financials/Insurance; caution in broad allocation. Play high-conviction breakouts/breakdowns (monitor names on unusual volume or recent 15DMA cross signals).
• Monitor institutional flows: Sharp drop in turnover and increased institutional clustering (ZENITHBANK, GTCO) may precede sector inflection points — watch for "confirmation” by price action before entering.
• Avoid volume "frenzy" without fundamentals: Unusual volume may not always signal sustainable moves; beware pump-and-dump risks, especially in low-float/small cap names echoing TANTALIZER or ASOSAVINGS.
• Currency Watch: Naira appreciation (+0.01%) is marginal, but enthusiasm is muted — waits for further catalysts.

• Market breadth and liquidity are declining, with both turnover and advancers noticeably down.
• Momentum remains in select YTD outperformers, but many are now overbought or speculative. Several large caps are under institutional distribution – further caution required.
• Income and defensives with low beta may help buffer coming volatility, but only after downside on short-term momentum unwinds. Watch for reversal signals in top YTD losers.
• Avoid chasing volume surges unless supported by broader trend or fundamentals; volatility and risk will remain pronounced in the near term.