Daily NGX Market Summary • Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Market Wrap

The NGX All Share Index rallied today, gaining 0.59% to close at 152,459.07, sustaining robust YTD returns of 48.63%. Turnover soared by 110.6% to ₦20.78B, and volumes jumped to 677.4M shares, spotlighting major institutional trades amid a moderate market breadth of 0.94x (31 advancers vs. 33 decliners). The session was driven by powerful momentum in industrials and selected financials, but was offset by sell-offs in ETFs and a few high-flying names confronting profit-taking. Notably, momentum signals and unusual volume spikes suggest tactical, short-term opportunities—but with caution as overbought symptoms bubble up for some leaders.

Key Market Trends

• Turnover & Volume Boom: Massive surge in both turnover (+110.6%) and volume (up 65%+ over prior session) signals heavy institutional participation and active rotation, especially in large-cap banks and industrials.
• Advancers vs. Decliners: Breadth is neutral to mildly negative (31 vs. 33); though headline index is up, leadership is narrowing and rotation into select momentum plays is evident.
• Market Breadth Divergence: Advancers led by ALEX (+9.96%) and CUSTODIAN (+9.69%), while decliners like NEWGOLD ETF (-10.8%) and MERGROWTH (-9.98%) reflect heightened ETF volatility.
• Unusual Volume Spike: VFDGROUP drew 4657% above its typical volume—potential accumulation, block trades, or entry of a new institutional player.
• RSI/Momentum Overheating: Several top gainers (notably ALEX RSI 99.6 and FIRSTHOLDCO RSI 94.1) demonstrate extreme overbought conditions.
• Bullish Crossovers: Notable names crossed above 15DMA: CUSTODIAN and FTNCOCOA—both with strong price surges and positive technicals.
• Bearish Crosses: Select key stocks are breaking below 15DMA—caution warranted especially for ETF heavyweights and ZENITHBANK.

YTD Leaders & Laggards (Top 5)

Noteworthy Gainers & Losers Today

• ALUMINIUM EXTRUSION IND. (ALEX): +9.96%, RSI 99.6—Outperformance continues, but RSI flags severe overbought and risk of short-term pullback.
• AUSTIN LAZ (AUSTINLAZ): +9.81%, RSI 62.2—Significant breakout with volume 10X normal. Fresh momentum; but watch volatility.
• FIRSTHOLDCO: +9.35%, RSI 94.1—Sustained, parabolic rally; deeply overbought. Both retail and institutional investors active.
• NEWGOLD ETF: -10.82%, RSI 55.8—Sharp correction, possible rebalancing or institutional sell-side flow. Technicals neutral; may stabilize soon.
• GREENWETF: -6.67%—Breakdown below 15DMA; watch for continued bearishness if market volatility persists.
• ROYAL EXCHANGE (ROYALEX): -7.21%, crossed below 15DMA—Downtrend with negative volume momentum, despite a dividend yield of 7.81%. Potential dividend trap if weak price persists.

Volume & Momentum Standouts

• Unusual Volume:
  • VFDGROUP: Volume at 4,657% above 90-day average—potential stealth accumulation or major block activity.
  • NSLTECH & CHAMS: Significant spikes (+607% and +181%, respectively), warranting short-term attention for traders.
  • AUSTINLAZ: Also with 10X volume on a high-momentum day—surfacing as a tactical opportunity.
• Bullish Crosses: CUSTODIAN (+8.8%, crossed 15DMA), FTNCOCOA (+8.0%, 15DMA cross), LIVINGTRUST (+8.0%); healthy breadth among non-banking mid-caps.
• Bearish Crosses: ZENITHBANK and ETFs (NEWGOLD, GREENWETF) dipped below 15DMA—potential trend exhaustion or sector rotation.
• Overlaps: ALEX and FIRSTHOLDCO are YTD leaders, top 5 gainers today, and signal extreme technical momentum. Careful for late entries.

Contrarian Signals

• FIRSTHOLDCO: Massive gain, RSI at 94+, strong institutional and retail activity—but such extreme RSI and parabolic runups rarely last; potential for a "buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
• CUSTODIAN: Price just crossed above 15DMA with modest RSI (35.2) and negative MACD—momentum may be stalling, not yet a runaway trend.
• ZENITHBANK: High institutional turnover (see below), but broke below 15DMA and mildly negative momentum. Indicates some fund rotation or hedging despite index strength.
• ROYALEX: High dividend (7.81%) but under price pressure, below 15DMA—a classic "dividend trap” risk if trend doesn’t reverse.
• CHAMS: Spiking volume (+181%) on a modestly positive day, potentially indicating late-comer buying or speculative froth.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Stock Scouting

• Comment: Only CUSTODIAN and LIVINGTRUST currently offer a blend of positive price trend, dividend support and relatively low beta, qualifying as "defensive momentum" picks. ROYALEX shows high yield, but beware the classic dividend trap scenario.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% institutional trade value share (₦1.24B out of ₦6.13B across top 5), with majority sell-side—signaling likely fund rotation. Shares break below 15DMA—watch for short-term downside moves.
• FIRSTHOLDCO: Heavy institution buying (₦1.32B, 12.4% of major volume), with extreme momentum. Both retail and fund managers are piling in, but froth can turn to profit-taking swiftly.
• ARADEL: Quiet accumulation (₦815M) with small price move—possible stealth institutional buildup.

Market Activity & Trade Analytics

• Institutional vs Retail:
  • Institutionals: 33.6% of trade count, but dominate with 76.2% of volume and 87.5% of trade value; impact concentrated in select high-value names.
  • Retails: 66.4% of trade count, but just 23.8% of volume and 12.5% of value.
• Top 5 Institutional Buys: FIRSTHOLDCO (₦1.32B), ACCESSCORP, MTNN, ZENITHBANK, ARADEL. All heavyweights, all actively traded and feature in bullish/bearish DMA lists.
• Top 5 Retail Trades: MTNN, GTCO, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, FIRSTHOLDCO—same names as institutions, but with smaller lot sizes. Retail crowd is chasing momentum trades, especially in big banks and telcos.
• Hidden Insight: When both institutional and retail flows converge on same symbols (e.g., FIRSTHOLDCO, ZENITHBANK), moves tend to be more extended—but also more at risk for "air-pocket” corrections when trend exhausts. Caution: Overlapping interest is bullish... until the exit rush begins.

Actionable Insights & Trading Suggestions

• Momentum Opportunities: ALEX, FIRSTHOLDCO, MECURE—but tight stop-losses are crucial due to RSI extremes and potential for sharp reversals.
• Detecting Reversals: ETFs (NEWGOLD, GREENWETF) and ROYALEX are under selling pressure and show bearish technicals; short-term traders may seek quick rebounds, but avoid overstaying weak hands.
• Monitor Unusual Volumes: Watch VFDGROUP, CHAMS, NSLTECH for breakout follow-through or, if exhausted, for abrupt reversals; volume spikes can precede trend exhaustion as well as new rallies.
• Defensive Play: CUSTODIAN and LIVINGTRUST combine decent yields, low beta, and positive momentum—suitable for cautious accumulation.
• Avoid Yield Traps: ROYALEX sports high dividends but a negative trend—wait for technical confirmation of reversal before entry.
• ETF Watch: Further weakness in liquidity-heavy ETFs could spill over into broad market mood. Caution on high-beta plays if selloff accelerates.
• For Swing Traders: Trailing stop strategies advised on overbought leaders; volume/price climaxes historically precede mean-reversion pullbacks.