NGX Daily Market Summary – Monday, August 18, 2025

The Nigerian Equities Market started the week on a steady note, with the NGX All Share Index advancing modestly by 0.07% to close at 144,628.20. Year-to-date, the market remains robust, posting 40.26% gains. Turnover grew by 8.14% compared to the last session, signaling continued investor enthusiasm despite a dip in trading volumes (down 23.88% day-on-day). Breadth was positive at 1.52x as 47 stocks advanced against 31 decliners. Insurance names and select momentum stocks led the pack, while broader sector participation hinted at rotation and tactical positioning.

Quick Recap of Last Week

The previous week was marked by heightened volatility, driven by earnings releases, sustained foreign inflows, and sector rebalancing. Defensive stocks remained in favor, but momentum and ETF products saw strong flows, confirming mixed risk appetites among both institutional and retail segments. Standout themes included rotational buying in consumer goods and insurance, and tactical exits from select heavyweight financials.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market breadth positive at 1.52x (47 advancers vs 31 decliners) – breadth supports ongoing accumulation in pockets of the market, despite flattish top-line index moves.
• Volume increased in 66 stocks, but down in 75 – breadth of activity signals selective buying and possible profit booking.
• Turnover of ₦13.62B (+8.14%) on shrinking volumes: higher value, lower volume may indicate institutionally driven block trades.
• Institutional investors accounted for 64.9% of volumes and a commanding 80.15% of value, with trade count at 39.41% – suggesting a tilt toward large value, low frequency transactions.
• Retail participation strong by trade count (60.59%) but lower by value (19.85%); retail focus was more diversified and centered on mid-tier banking and telecom names.

Top Gainers & Losers – Standouts

• AIICO INSURANCE and MERGROWTH ETF moved up 10% each on strong momentum. Both display healthy RSI readings (AIICO: 66.7, MERGROWTH: 73.16), though MERGROWTH is approaching overbought territory.
• GREENWETF and STANBIC reversed sharply (-10% and -9.99% respectively); STANBIC's RSI 96.87 signals severe overbought conditions and a likely correction phase.
• Insurance and ETF-linked instruments dominate both extremes, signifying rapid sectoral rotation and speculative flows.

Momentum Insights: Bullish & Bearish Signals

• Bullish crossovers feature a blend of insurance (e.g., UPDC), diversified financials and consumer names. RSI values are broadly supportive (not yet overbought).
• Bearish crossovers cluster in financials (STANBIC, ACCESSCORP) and ETFs, with several sporting very high or rapidly declining RSI values – beware mean reversion risk!

Noteworthy Volume Surges

• Insurance sector is clearly hot for both buyers and traders: Unusual volume and outsized price moves. High turnover in LASACO (-1.48%) despite huge volume spike (505.7% above 90D avg) hints at distribution/seller control after a prolonged uptrend.
• Likewise, UNIVINSURE, MBENEFIT, and PRESTIGE show explosive volumes, but not all resulted in significant price gains—watch for reversals, especially when price fails to follow volume up.

Contrarian Signals

• STANBIC IBTC stands out with an extremely high RSI of 96.87 despite sharp price drops and a bearish 15DMA breakdown. Typically indicates a market top or blow-off, with a high likelihood of further pullback or sharp mean reversion.
• CHAMPION BREW (YTD +385.8%) – Despite enormous YTD rally, its RSI sits at a moderate 54.4, with MACD still positive. Momentum not exhausted yet, but risk of volatility spike is high.
• NEM INSURANCE – Present in both bearish momentum and YTD losers list, but maintains high RSI (66.13); watch for sentiment shift or sharp correction if support cracks.
• GREENWETF – Both a top daily loser & on bearish momentum watch, but RSI in the neutral zone (54.22) and strong MACD. May see short covering or rapid reversal if ETF sector risk appetite returns.

Year-to-Date (YTD) Gainers and Losers (Top-5)

• Top gainers for the year include CHAMPION (+385.8%) and MBENEFIT (+593.4%), both showing signs of persistent accumulation, though with elevated RSI for MBENEFIT.
• GREENWETF (-40.8%) is top YTD loser and remains under pressure despite a neutral RSI – possible turnaround play if ETF sector recovers.
• Insurance and ETFs appear on both gainers and losers lists, pointing to two-tier trading within sectors and high sector churn.

Sector Performance Heatmap

Dividend-Yield vs Beta Matrix (Defensive Plays)

• Best defensive yield-beta trade-offs: LASACO and NEM – both high dividend, low beta, and sub-index volatility; although price momentum is currently negative for NEM, both offer attractive income/low-vol shelter in risk-off stints.
• No high-yield stock currently on the most aggressive bearish or bullish momentum tables, suggesting dividends remain a defensive and not speculative strategy at present.

Institutional Activity Focus

• ZENITHBANK flagged for high institutional concentration: 20.17% of total traded value today – large blocks, tactical bets, or position rotation likely in play. Investors should track subsequent block transactions for signals.
• ACCESSCORP, UBA, and DANGSUGAR trailed close behind with active institutional trades but saw mostly flat or negative price moves—evidence that institutional flows alone do not guarantee direction in soft markets.
• Retail activity is skewed toward MTNN (strong by count, low by value) and same core banks—short-term traders may follow retail signals for volatility trades.

Market Activity & Trade Pattern Insights

• Institutional vs Retail Trades:
  • Institutions dominate by Value (₦12.07B) and Volume (64.89%), but are a minority by Trade Count (39.41%). Retail trades are more numerous but smaller on average—shows institutions prefer fewer, bigger trades while retail churns frequently on tight liquidity names.
• Top 5 Institutional Traded Stocks:
  1. ZENITHBANK (₦878.6M, 1.16% of today's volume)
  2. ACCESSCORP (₦706.5M, 2.45%)
  3. UBA (₦649.9M, 1.29%)
  4. DANGSUGAR (₦414.7M, 0.66%)
  5. MTNN (₦604.9M, 0.14%)
• Top 5 Retail Traded Stocks:
  1. MTNN (4.26% of retail trades by count)
  2. ACCESSCORP (4.23%)
  3. UBA (3.78%)
  4. GTCO (3.65%)
  5. DANGSUGAR (3.10%)
  Similarity: MTNN, ACCESSCORP, UBA, DANGSUGAR dominate both institutional and retail flows—these will be key volatility pivots.

Traders’ Opportunities & Cautions

• Opportunities:
  • Bullish momentum crossovers on mid-cap insurers, diversified & food stocks: UPDC, CUSTODIAN, MCNICHOLS. Look for continuation trades as 15DMA/50DMA uptrends persist.
  • Powerful volume surges in insurance stocks make UNIVINSURE, MBENEFIT, and PRESTIGE attractive for intraday setups or tactical accumulation—pair with stop-loss due to potential reversals.
  • Defensive, income-oriented investors may favor LASACO or NEM for yield with modest risk (based on low Beta).
  • Contrarian plays may emerge from stocks like GREENWETF (deep underperformance but technical mean-reversion potential) and CHAMPION (positive MACD, RSI not yet overheated despite high YTD gains).
• Cautions:
  • Watch for profit-taking/correction in STANBIC & select ETFs—extreme RSI and bearish 15DMA cross can trigger sharp short-term drops despite prior strength.
  • Some high-momentum insurance tickers have volume spikes not matched by price moves; tread carefully if chasing breakouts.
  • Turnover rising but volume declining can foreshadow brewing illiquidity or a shift toward large-block trading—be alert to volatility spikes in low-float names.

Summary Outlook

• Momentum remains constructive overall with pockets of exuberance (insurance, ETFs, select small/mid caps).
• Substantial institutional value flows in banking and telecoms suggest continued sector focus, but short-term moves will be driven by liquidity and technical swings.
• RSI extremes and moving average crossovers highlight fertile ground for both trend followers and contrarians—signal stacking is crucial for timing entries and exits.