NGX Market Summary – Tuesday, November 11, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) saw a sharp -5.01% decline today, closing at 148,781.90, though the YTD return remains robust at 36.97%. Market sentiment was negative, as the breadth indicator hit an extreme low of 0.09x, with just 6 advancers versus 65 decliners. However, both traded volume and turnover surged significantly—volume jumped to 570.30M shares (+64.7% vs. previous day), while market turnover soared to 24.8B Naira (+139.03%). Despite the market-wide sell-off, a handful of stocks saw notable gains, with ETFs and selected financials bucking the trend. Technical signals highlight growing bearish momentum across major blue chips and sector leaders, with only isolated pockets of bullish strength.

Significant Trends in Market Breadth

• Market Breadth: Severely negative at 0.09x—only 6 stocks advanced against 65 decliners. This is the deepest negative breadth in recent weeks and signals potential panic selling/climax.
• Volume Surge: Unusual; over half (84) of listed companies saw volume gains, suggesting intense institutional activity, especially in large caps.
• Turnover Spike: Massive +139.03% jump in traded value, indicating heavy block trades or institutional repositioning despite weak prices.

Top 5 Year-To-Date Gainers & Losers

• NCR (Nigeria): Remains the standout, posting a 9.82% daily gain and holding a remarkable 286.36% YTD return—but RSI at 91 suggests highly overbought/overextended territory.
• STANBICETF30: The only security in both the top price gainers and bullish momentum tables, showing technical as well as return outperformance.
• Losses deepen: YTD losers such as MULTIVERSE and CUSTODIAN continued to slide, many hitting extreme oversold RSI readings (sub-40).
• High Volatility: YTD losers cluster in insurance and small/mid cap names, indicating risk-off sentiment.

Momentum Insights & Hidden Patterns

• Bullish Momentum: Only STANBICETF30 closed above its 15D MA. It’s also today’s top gainer (+9.99%), and it appears in the YTD Top Gainers, marking a rare triple-confluence of strength (momentum, price, and historic outperformance).
• Bull Burnout Watch: NCR’s RSI 91.0 is at textbook overbought levels—risk of snap-back or profit-taking is extremely high, even as price surges.
• Bearish Momentum: Multiple blue chips broke 15DMA from above including JAIZBANK, FIDELITYBK, STANBIC, BUACEMENT, DANGCEM, and DEAPCAP, all with daily price drops exceeding -4.62% to -11.11%. Investors should monitor for continued slide.
• Unusual Volume: STANBIC saw a staggering 888% spike above its 90-day volume average, accompanying a -9.97% drop and negative 15DMA crossover—a major distribution signal.
• Sector Pressure: Major financials and building material stocks are under acute selling, as seen by negative crossover and sharp trade value drops.

Contrarian Signals (Conflicting Technicals)

• NCR: Even as price explodes higher +9.82% and YTD triple-digit gains, its RSI at 91 and unchanged MACD suggest short-term exhaustion. Caution against "chasing” at these highs.
• DEAPCAP: Despite being a recent YTD gainer, its technicals (bearing momentum, 15DMA breakdown, and -10% daily) may signal a near-term reversal or completion of a rally.
• STANBIC: Notable for record high trade volume, but with -9.97% price drop and a move below 15DMA, despite historical beta <0.3, often associated with defensive status.

Sector Heatmap & Technical Summary

Dividend / Beta Defensive Stocks Matrix

• Defensive Play: No high yielding, low-beta stock is currently in a bullish technical phase. Recent 'defensive' classics are in distribution, not accumulation.
• AFRIPRUD (referenced): 1.27% yield, Beta 0.64, but absent from momentum/gainers tables—suggest possible rotation away from yield to liquid large caps.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% share of institutional volume, accounting for 37% of all trades by value/volume in the sector. Net price action sharply negative; institutional money appears to be offloading/redistributing in size.
• STANBIC and FIRSTHOLDCO: Unusual volume spikes and high institutional activity, but price action is negative on both—a classic "sell the rally” or "exit liquidity” picture.

Dividend Yield Meets Momentum: Implications

• Note: None of the day’s bullish momentum or top gainer names have a material dividend yield. This indicates the day’s strength is momentum/sentiment driven, not income/yield rotation.
• High Dividend Bearish: Several high-yield bank stocks (ZENITHBANK, FIDELITYBK, UBA) are in bearish momentum tables and see heavy institutional selling—signal for caution.
• Income portfolios should avoid chasing high-yielders while they are in technical breakdown.

Actionable Suggestions & Caution for Traders

• Don’t fight the trend: Market is in distribution—new longs should be avoided except in isolated ETFs or momentum pockets (e.g. STANBICETF30).
• Volatility spike: Be wary of liquidity gaps—wide trading bands appearing in high-volume names. Wait for stabilization before bottom-fishing.
• Profit-taking in Overbought Stocks: NCR RSI warns of likely near-term mean reversion; consider tightening stops or partial exits if long.
• Institutional flows indicate risk-off: Watch for rebound signals; otherwise, avoid crowded longs in names like ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, STANBIC, DANGCEM.
• Short-term Contrarian Play: If new support forms in severely oversold bank or cement heavyweights, oversold RSI (<35) may prove buyable—but not until volume subsides.

Market Activity & Flow Insights

• Institutional vs Retail: Institutional investors dominated volume (70.03%) and value (92.79%), but made up only 37.05% of trade count (larger ticket size). Retail made up 63% of trades but only 7.21% of value—small lots.
• Top Institutional Stocks (by trade value): ZENITHBANK, ARADEL, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, UBA. All are major banking/financial sector names and each saw heavy price declines (from -7.7% to -9.4%), suggesting broad sector redemptions.
• Top Retail Traded Stocks: MTNN, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA, GTCO—all high-liquidity blue chips, with price action mirroring institutional trades and declines, indicating no "safe haven" among big names.
• Correlation: Both retail and institutional flows converged on the same names, amplifying directional moves and suggesting little divergence in sentiment.
• Implication: The rally in daily turnover is due to forced or risk-off repositioning, rather than fresh capital inflow—caution is warranted on rebounds.

Summary: Look for support in high-quality names after current selling exhausts. Until then, focus on defensive trading—preserve capital and avoid buying into sharp falls unless clear reversal signals (RSI, volume contraction, bullish MACD) emerge.