NGX Market Summary – Monday, November 10, 2025

Market Recap:
The NGX All Share Index (ASI) slipped -0.46% today to close at 149,524.81, continuing a recent softening after robust YTD returns of 44.24%. Activity moderated from the prior session as volume decreased to 346.26M shares and turnover fell -24.88% to 10.38B Naira, underlining a risk-averse tone. Market breadth was extremely narrow (0.30x), with only 14 advancers and a heavy 47 decliners -- further illustrating sellers’ dominance at the start of the week.
Winners included ASO SAVINGS (+10% , unusual volume up 127% above 90-day average) while DEAP CAPITAL (-9.83%, also high volume) topped losers. In spite of the pullback, U.S. Dollar-Naira exchange saw a further firming of the Naira (+0.30%) to 1,438 per dollar.

Significant Trends in Market Breadth

• Decliners Dominated: Just 14 stocks advanced vs. 47 decliners (breadth 0.30x), flagging broad-based selling.
• Turnover & Participation: Both volume and value fell, a classic sign of "risk-off” as institutions retreated. Notably, institutional trades made up 82.4% of traded value despite just 38.4% of trades by count, showing high-value blocks were driving the tape.
• Mixed Volume Action: 68 stocks saw increasing volume, while 74 fell -- suggesting selective but scattered interest instead of outright panic.

Top Gainers & Losers — Standout Performers

• ASOSAVINGS (+10%) surged on volume 127% above normal — signaling heightened speculative interest.
• DEAPCAP is the only gainer (9.8%) from both today’s and YTD tables, supported by large volume and mid-level RSI (not yet overbought).
• NAHCO (-9.95%) posted an outsized loss on volume more than double its 90DMA, perhaps flushed by profit taking from its high YTD.
• LINKASSURE (-10%) — persistent YTD underperformer, now making another new low, deepening negative momentum.

Key Insights & Analytical Takeaways

• Turnover Decline: A -24.9% drop in traded value sends a warning on conviction: institutional appetite has waned. Short-term rallies could lose steam unless turnover recovers.
• Advancers/Decliners Trend: Only 14 gainers out of 126 active stocks is a red flag, especially as the market has generated huge YTD returns — a classic rotation from leaders to laggards may be underway.
• Unusual Volume Stocks:
  • DEAPCAP, ASOSAVINGS, DANGCEM, PZ, and NAHCO all saw 2–2.5x their average volumes — these are likely the battleground stocks for the week, with a mix of momentum chasers and profit takers.
  • PZ saw heavy volume but fell -3.02%, potentially an early warning of distribution in consumer stocks.
• Momentum Tables Cross-analysis:
  • NEIMETH appears in both top gainers and as a bullish momentum name (price above 15DMA). Its RSI (34) is below "overbought” (70), suggesting further headroom for uptrend before exhaustion.
  • No major YTD top gainers are currently registering bullish signals (RSI > 70). Caution: The lack of extremely "overbought” RSI prints signals most rallying stocks have room to run or are resetting for another go higher.
  • LINKASSURE is both a top daily and YTD loser — confirming entrenched downtrend.
  • On the bearish momentum side, several large caps (e.g., PRESCO, VITAFOAM, UNILEVER) have just broken below their 15DMA; combined with their relatively high dividend yields, these could attract bottom-fishers seeking mean reversion trades.

Contrarian Signals: Hidden & Conflicting Indicators

• CHAMPION BREWERIES (CHAMPION):
  • YTD: -9.80% (Loser), but RSI is middle zone (54.4), and MACD just turned bullish.
  • Potential reversal? Watch for volume confirmation; technicals hint a bottoming process is in effect despite YTD weakness.
• PZ Cussons: Large "unusual” volume accompanied by price drop. Possibility: Institutions quietly unloading? Contrarians might want to monitor for capitulation lows.
• NAHCO: Despite a one-day collapse and now among YTD losers, its YTD return is still high (nearly +98%). RSI (40.8) is not "oversold”; suggesting room for another leg lower… BUT volume spike and strong longer-term uptrend could attract swing traders looking for a sharp bounce.

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Stock Opportunities

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutions accounted for 20.17% of institutional trade value—highest among peers— signaling fund concentration. ZENITHBANK is also a retail trade favorite. This dual participation can imply high liquidity but also raise volatility if flows reverse.
• DANGCEM: Another institutional darling (18.68% of value), on 151% of avg volume but with zero price change, implying buyers and sellers reached temporary equilibrium. Watch for breakout.

Trader Pointers & Cautions

• Momentum Watch: NEIMETH and FIDELITYBK have crossed above their 15DMA and remain well below "overbought” RSI. These could trend further up barring market-wide risk-off events.
• Yield Traps: Some high dividend payers (VITAFOAM, PRESCO) are breaking down technically. Avoid "buying the dip” blindly until momentum reverses.
• YTD Top Performer Weakness: NAHCO’s sharp slump on heavy volume may portend post-earnings profit taking or institutional derisking – could be susceptible to further swings.
• Bargain Radar: "Contrarian alert” on CHAMPION – YTD loser but with improving technicals; volume confirmation needed.

Mon/Tue: YTD Gainers & Losers (Highlights)

Market Activity: Retail vs Institutional Dynamics

• Trade Count: Retail dominated by number (61.6% of trades), yet controlled less than half the volume (45.9%) and just 17.6% of value.
• Institutions: Concentrated large block trades (just 38.4% of trades but 82.4% of value), especially in ZENITHBANK, DANGCEM, ACCESSCORP. Mean institutions are taking fewer but larger positions, possibly rebalancing post-Earnings/YTD run-up.
• Retail "Most Traded” Stocks: MTNN, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, ACCESSCORP, UBA. High overlap with institutional list except for MTNN (heavily traded by retail only). This pattern implies:
  • ZENITHBANK, GTCO, ACCESSCORP are highly liquid and favored by both camps—suitable for tactical trades.
  • MTNN is a retail favorite but not heavily traded by institutions today, signaling possible price inefficiency opportunities.
• Unusual Volumes: Institutional names (DEAPCAP, DANGCEM) and speculative retail (ASOSAVINGS) overlap, potentially creating volatility and "volume pivots” for swing/trend traders.

Previous Week’s Performance Snapshot

Summary: Markets rallied strongly into the end of last week, led by speculative names and ETFs. Early strength has faded as investors lock in profits and rotate into defensives. The ASI now consolidates after a 44% YTD run, and Friday’s heavy turnover and volume spikes in select names hinted at the leadership exhaustion.

Summary & Suggestions for Traders

• For Bulls: Watch NEIMETH, FIDELITYBK, and other 15DMA breakout names for momentum continuation. Institutions may re-enter as volume/vix normalizes.
• For Bears: Avoid "catching falling knives” in perennial losers like LINKASSURE or heavily sold sectors unless clear reversal signals emerge.
• For Contrarians: Look for exhaustion signals or potential snap-backs in high-volume underperformers (PZ, NAHCO, CHAMPION) — confirm with volume reversals and MACD crossovers.
• Yield Hunters: Avoid stocks just for yield when technicals are negative (VITAFOAM, PRESCO). Focus on those combining defensive yield, low beta and upward momentum (e.g., FIDELITYBK, AFRIPRUD).
• General Caution: With breadth so poor, use stops liberally and wait for turnover rebound before betting on a broad rally. Defensive allocations (cash, ETFs) prudent until sector trends stabilize.