Market Wrap: Friday, 7 November 2025

It was a risk-off session on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) today, with the All Share Index (ASI) sliding -0.33% to 150,026.55, moderating the impressive YTD return to 44.92%. Turnover fell -7.26% from the previous session as total traded value clocked ₦13.81 billion, and daily market breadth remained negative, with just 25 advancers versus 41 decliners. Unusual volumes in several banking and insurance names flagged heightened institutional interest and rotation, while NEWGOLD and NCR stole the show in the top gainers and losers tables respectively. The Naira maintained a firm tone, appreciating 0.02% to 1,442 against the Dollar.

• Market Breadth:
  • Market breadth at 0.61x (25 advancers vs. 41 decliners) underscores strong selling pressure and ongoing profit booking after the YTD rally.
  • Overall liquidity softened: both trading volume -15.4% and value -7.26% declined, reflecting some risk aversion or "wait-and-see" positioning.
• Top Gainers & Losers:

  Stock	Price	% Change	RSI	Notable Signal
  NEWGOLD	57,449.00	+11.55%	43.7	Bullish momentum, crossed above 15DMA
  NCR	19.35	+9.94%	84.8	Overbought RSI, may be due for correction
  MCNICHOLS	3.02	+9.8%	35.5	Low RSI, possible early upturn
  EUNISELL	70.90	+9.24%	80.3	Overbought zone, monitor for reversal
  DEAPCAP	1.73	+8.81%	44.0	Bullish crossover, high volatility
  BERGER	35.10	-10.00%	49.0	Below 15DMA, bearish momentum
  CILEASING	5.03	-9.86%	36.6	Bearish momentum, negative MACD
  MECURE	27.70	-9.77%	80.6	Potential exhaustion, overbought RSI
  CHAMPION	13.00	-9.72%	43.1	Bounce possible, RSI near oversold
  TIP	10.75	-9.66%	39.7	Bearish baseline, high volatility

Insights & Predictions

• Turnover drop: -7.26% contraction in market turnover is a mild red flag—suggests participants are taking risk off the table, or rotating into cash ahead of year-end positioning. Such dips often precede volatility bursts or sector reallocations.
• Advancers vs. Decliners: Consistent negative breadth (0.61x) can foreshadow further drawdowns unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
• Unusual Volume Standouts:
  • WEMABANK: Traded 90.9M shares vs 9.5M 90-day average (+855% volume!) but price -2.08% — likely large institutional unloading after rally; follow-up signals needed before calling a floor.
  • MANSARD: Volume surge (>11x normal) on a -5.00% dip, pointing to unambiguous distribution/selling pressure.
  • GUINNESS: Over 10x average volume, with price up +3.94% — suggests accumulation; watch for follow-through upside.
• Top Gainers: Momentum Watch
  • NCR & EUNISELL rank among the week’s strongest stocks and also appear as daily top gainers, but both have RSI above 80 (overbought) — likely due for short-term pullbacks or volatility spikes.
  • NEWGOLD features in both the daily and top 5D gainers, plus bullish 15DMA crossover—ETF flows may be hedging or safe-haven bets.
  • CHAMPION & CILEASING are prominent in the top losers both YTD and for today; persistent selling pressure may portend further downside.
• Bullish Momentum (15DMA Cross): NEWGOLD, DEAPCAP, MAYBAKER, and two ETFs flashed bullish signals. Notably, NEWGOLD combines multiple bullish themes (price surge, >15DMA, ETF status) — worth monitoring for possible institutional accumulation.
• Bearish Momentum (15DMA Breaks): CUSTODIAN, MECURE (on both losers and bearish lists), and FCMB broke below 15DMA. Especially watch MECURE: price is sharply down, RSI is high (80.6), indicating blow-off top risk after a hype rally.
• Persistent YTD Losers: CHAMPION, CILEASING, and BERGER are in today’s losing cohort and among the worst YTD performers, underscoring a clear absence of bottom fishers—and suggesting sentiment is still negative or capital is flowing elsewhere.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION (−9.8% YTD): RSI is neutral (43.1), MACD is negative (but less so than prior day), and the stock is near yearly lows, but PE is ultra-high (412x). Any positive catalyst could prompt a short-covering rally, but fundamental value is suspect.
• MECURE: RSI is extremely high (80.6, overbought), but price is falling sharply (-9.77%); suggests exhaustion — be cautious of whipsaw action.
• NCR: RSI hit 84.8 (overbought), but MACD still positive and strong price action; momentum followers beware of reversal traps.
• DEAPCAP: Bullish technicals (cross above 15DMA, strong % move), but fundamental PE is eye-wateringly high (188x), signaling price can swing hard either way.

Sector Heatmaps & Flows

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Stock Cluster)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 73.5% of today's market volume was institutional, with 88.3% of trade value from institutions. This is a clustering flag—expect either a forthcoming consolidation or a sharp move on any new news (earnings, regulation).
• MTNN: More than 80% of trade value by institutional hands, though price was flat—a sign of equilibrium, but possible set-up for breakout if market direction sharpens.
• SEPLAT and ARADEL: Block trades; both had almost all trading value from institutional desks, highlighting sector-wide reallocation in energy/oil.

High Dividend + Momentum Outliers

• DEAPCAP: Dividend yield of 13.76% and bullish cross above 15DMA; however PE is 188.8x. This is classic for "yield traps"—traders, not income investors, dominate here; expect aggressive swings.
• CUSTODIAN: Attractive yield (1.20%) and very low beta, but now in technical breakdown (-10.26%); suggest standing aside until price finds support.
• ZENITHBANK: Defensive but not momentum-driven—recent institutional profit-taking could set the stage for better entries in weeks ahead.

Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum Names: Consider short-term protection or trailing stops on NCR and EUNISELL due to overbought RSIs. Watch NEWGOLD and DEAPCAP for follow-through if ETF flows continue.
• High Volume Outflows: WEMABANK and MANSARD's huge volumes on price declines may precede rebounds—but let confirmation show before bottom-fishing.
• Sector Watch: If ETFs (NEWGOLD, GREENWETF) sustain momentum, broader risk-off appetite could rise — allocate accordingly.
• Yield + Momentum: Be cautious of "too good to be true" high yielders with unsustainable PEs (e.g. DEAPCAP).
• Take note of stocks showing both institutional concentration and technical inflection (e.g. ZENITHBANK), as these areas often see outsized moves after periods of absorption.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

Market Activity Deep Dive: Institutional vs Retail

• Institutions controlled the bulk of value and volume:
  • 73.5% of all traded shares and 88.3% of value were institutional. Yet the number of trades (just 8% of total) confirms they’re usually block trades (large sizes, low frequency).
  • Top Institutional Trades:
    • ZENITHBANK: 3.88% of institutional trades by volume, 7.97% by value
    • MTNN, ACCESSCORP, SEPLAT, and ARADEL also showed high institutional trade concentration—indicative of sector rotations and/or portfolio rebalancing at scale.
  • Top Retail Flows:
    • Retail heavily traded MTNN, ZENITHBANK, and ACCESSCORP—but in substantially smaller sizes than institutional flows.
• Pattern Correlation:
  • Stocks with both high institutional activity and near technical inflection points (e.g., ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, MTNN) tend to precede outsized moves when retail traders eventually jump in, amplifying any established trend.
  • Unusual volumes in names like WEMABANK and MANSARD signal institutional rotations; wait for confirmation before chasing these moves.
• Actionable Standouts:
  • Monitor names with converging signals: high volume, institutional involvement, and technical crossovers—e.g., NEWGOLD (bullish), CILEASING/CHAMPION (bearish), ZENITHBANK (potential trend change as block trades peak).

Bottom line: Expect ongoing choppiness, with ETF inflows acting as a volatility gauge for sentiment. Institutional clusters are shaping near-term direction—look for reversals in overbought gainers and deeper floor-testing in persistent losers.