NGX Daily Market Summary – Thursday, November 13, 2025

Market Recap:
The Nigerian Equities market rebounded impressively as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) climbed by +1.08% to close at 145,403.83. However, the uptrend was accompanied by a pronounced -41.86% decline in market turnover (₦21.79B), and total traded volume fell to 574.81M from 771.33M—suggesting that the session’s bullish tilt lacked strong broad participation. Market breadth remains robust, with 59 advancers crushing 11 decliners (breadth ratio: 5.36x). The year-to-date return now sits at an impressive +42.45%. Notably, select banking and insurance counters as well as several ETFs saw surges in price and robust volumes, juxtaposed with some institutional profit-taking in large-cap names. On the currency front, the Naira gained marginally by +0.10% to close at ₦1,436/$.

📊 Key Market Trends

• Market Breadth: Advancers (59) outpaced decliners (11) by more than 5x, a strongly bullish breadth. However, volume was up in only 44 stocks while down in 94, hinting at leadership by few names.
• Turnover: The sharp turnover drop (-41.86%) even with a positive ASI, signals caution—gains were less "genuine,” pointing toward potential short-term profit taking or institutional rotation.
• Unusual Volume: WEMA BANK (+817% volume spike), STANBIC IBTC (+441%), and UBA (+148%) saw outsized trading—a possible clue to renewed accumulation or exit activity.
• Institutional Clustering: Institutional activity accounted for 91.4% of the day's traded value, with ZENITHBANK, DANGCEM, ACCESSCORP, UBA, and MTNN being focal points.
• Bullish Momentum: Bank-heavyweight ZENITHBANK and tier-1 lender UBA crossed above their 15DMA, confirming fresh buying interest among institutions—further corroborated by high volumes and institutional trade dominance in these tickers.

🔥 Top Gainers & Top Losers

• LINKASSURE's ceiling move (+10%) came with an RSI below 40 and no clear bullish MACD—momentum may be fleeting.
• STANBIC IBTC ETF 30 matched institutional activity spike with +10% move and an elevated RSI (66.7), approaching overbought territory.
• CUSTODIAN reversed sharply (-10%) and now sits at RSI 31.5—potentially near a technical bottom/oversold zone.
• OANDO continues a rising streak, closing above its 15DMA with strong institutional inflows.

📈 YTD Table Highlights & Momentum Insights

• NCR stands out with a +324.5% YTD return and an RSI well above 90, historically signaling extreme overbought conditions—contrarian caution advised.
• TRANSPOWER at a -14.48% YTD decline with an RSI of 25.8 (oversold) may be primed for a technical relief rally.
• STANBIC IBTC ETF 30 not only leads the daily gainers but also maintains strong 5-day momentum, supported by high RSI and MACD readings.
• REGALINS and ROYAL EXCHANGE are "momentum favorites”, both featuring on top 5 YTD gainers, crossing their 15DMA, and showing up in bullish momentum lists.

🚦 Momentum Watch: RSI & Moving Average Crossovers

• Bullish Momentum:
  • ZENITHBANK (institutional action, RSI: ~40, above 15DMA/50DMA, bullish MACD) – strong upward technical realignment and big-money flows.
  • UBA (High volume, 15DMA breakout, RSI in the upper-30s/40s).
  • DEAPCAP and MCNICHOLS show strong price breaks above key moving averages, albeit with more speculative profiles.
  • ASOSAVINGS (10% dividend yield) crosses 15DMA with price surge—a value yield-hunter’s momentum play.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • STERLINGNG: Down -5.81% today, losing 15DMA support, high Beta (1.41), and neutral RSI; could be entering a real technical downtrend.
  • FCMB: Slight decline, but currently not at an RSI extreme.

🧩 Contrarian Signals

• CUSTODIAN AND ALLIED PLC: Down -10% on the day, but RSI is at 31.5 (near oversold) while MACD is negative—worth watching for a potential bounce if seller exhaustion emerges.
• NCR: YTD outlier with a +324% gain and RSI 94 suggests over-extension. Short-term caution possible.
• GUINNESS NIG PLC: Losses -5.14% with an RSI of 49 and negative price momentum, but MACD is positive—could portend a sharp reversal.
• REGALINS: Firm YTD gainer but Thursday’s MACD remains negative, pointing to hidden vulnerability despite longer-term trend.
• High Dividend, Bearish Signal Combo: FCMB holds a 5.62% yield, trading below 15DMA—watch for reversal setups.

🏦 Sector Heatmap & Institutional/Retail Pulse

🧮 Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

• Defensive Income Picks: ASOSAVINGS, REGALINS, ROYALEX combine high yield with low-to-moderate beta and confirmed technical or YTD strength, offering potential value for risk-off investors.
• Beware stocks like FCMB; while yield is high, current price momentum is negative.

🏛️ Institutional Clustering Alert

• ZENITHBANK: Dominated institutional trade activity (20.17% of value share), with high volume, positive trend, and cross-above on 15DMA—indicating strong confidence from big players.
• MTNN, DANGCEM, ACCESSCORP, UBA: also enjoyed outsized institutional flows.

🔍 Analysis From Market Activity Summaries

• Trade Breakdown: Retail investors accounted for 63.9% of trade count but just 8.6% of value—clear evidence that "smart money” (institutionals) led with larger tickets, focusing on ZENITHBANK, DANGCEM, and ACCESSCORP.
• Correlation Patterns: Stocks with both high institutional volumes and bullish technicals (ZENITHBANK, STANBIC, UBA) outperformed—suggests following institutional cues yields alpha.
• Top Traded (Retail): MTNN, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, DANGCEM. The overlap with institutional-traded stocks (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, DANGCEM) shows convergence in market focus but institutions dictate value and direction.
• Unusual Volume Watch: WEMABANK & STANBIC may see volatility continue near term as both sides ("dumb” and "smart” money) pile in.

💡 Noteworthy & Hidden Market Insights

• Market rally was "narrow”—select banking/ETF names drove gains, but broad traded value/volume faded. Traders might exercise caution until volume confirms breadth.
• Bullish crossovers (15DMA/50DMA) were concentrated in large cap banks and financials, signalling sector leadership may rotate back into banks near-term.
• Contrarian risk in top YTD gainers (NCR – high RSI, overextension alert) and several oversold names (CUSTODIAN, TRANSPOWER) may offer locational opportunities for mean reversion traders.
• Dividend captures: ROYALEX, REGALINS, and ASOSAVINGS provide both yield and technical confirmation—possible strategic additions for risk-averse, income-focused investors.

🕵️ Trading Suggestions

• Momentum traders: Focus on ZENITHBANK, UBA, STANBIC, and OANDO—confirmed volume and technical signals support further upside. Trail stops recommended as turnover contraction hints at possible profit-taking pressures ahead.
• Contrarians: Screen for possible rebound candidates in CUSTODIAN and TRANSPOWER (oversold zone), while remaining cautious around overbought names (NCR, STANBICETF30—gauged by RSI).
• Rotation Watch: If volume/turnover resumes, expect laggard sectors (Industrial/Consumer Goods) to catch up. But in absence of strong flows, stick with bank/financial leaders.
• Income investors: Consider REGALINS, ROYALEX or ASOSAVINGS as their healthy yield, low beta, and upward momentum provide both stability and appreciation potential.