NGX Market Wrap – Monday, October 13, 2025

The Nigerian market kicked off the week with a modest rebound, as the NGX ASI climbed +0.50% to close at 146,988.04. Year-to-date returns remain robust at +43.16%, reinforcing the market’s relative outperformance versus most African and frontier peers. Despite mild currency headwinds (-0.43% for the Naira against the USD), investor sentiment held firm. Market turnover rose 4.92% from last session to ₦10.96 billion on higher volume (387.21M shares), while a breadth ratio of 1.11x was recorded (31 advancers vs. 28 decliners)—illustrating a slightly bullish undertone amid active trading. The insurance and real estate segments led the action, supported by sharp price moves and several technical crossovers.

Quick Insights & Trends

• Market Breadth: Advancers (31) outpaced decliners (28), reflecting positive sentiment but not overwhelmingly so. Volume was up in 85 companies and down in 55—a slightly more energetic session compared to recent trading days.
• Top Gainer: GREENWETF (+10.00%, ₦330.00) - RSI: 59.8 (neutral-bullish), MACD solidly positive (7.44 vs. -5.45 prior).
• Top Loser: MERVALUE (-10.00%, ₦158.40) - RSI: 35.7 (approaching oversold), negative MACD momentum.
• Unusual Volume: CONHALLPLC (+935% vs. average!), HMCALL (+549%), MTNN, UPDCREIT—institutional engagement and price action worth close monitoring.
• Sector/ETF Play: Strong showings in alternative investment products (ETFs, REITs) on both top gainers and unusual volume lists.

Top 5 Daily Gainers

Top 5 Daily Losers

Deeper Insights & Possible Moves

• Turnover Impact: The 4.92% turnover rise is bullish and typical of the early week, suggesting institutional participation remains robust. Higher value and volume favor continuation of current trends especially in financials and select ETFs.
• Advancers vs. Decliners: Market breadth above 1.0 for the third consecutive day—while not overwhelming, does indicate underlying rotational strength. Advancers clustering in insurance, REITs, and alternative assets hint at a tactical risk-on rotation.
• Unusual Volume Alerts:
  • CONHALLPLC: +935% volume surge.
  • HMCALL: +549% unusual activity, price up +6.80%, crossed above 15DMA—a potential short-term breakout.
  • MTNN and UPDCREIT: Both saw institutional dominance—MTNN is flat, but this often precedes big directional moves.
  • Real Estate & Insurance segments are disproportionately present among top unusual volume equities.
• YTD Gainers vs. Losers Overlap:
  • SOVRENINS, CAVERTON, DANGCEM—all strong YTD winners, with persistent momentum (see sparkline crossovers below).
  • REGALINS, MERVALUE—notable for being both daily gainers or losers and among YTD worst. REGALINS is a rare case: +9.68% today but still +70.00% YTD (rebounding from prior sharp losses).
  • TRANSCORP POWER continues uptrend with strong MACD and 15DMA > 50DMA scenario, but daily volatility suggests traders should deploy tight stops.
• Bullish & Bearish Momentum Crossovers:
  • Bullish:
    • HMCALL, UPDCREIT, AFRIPRUD—closed above 15DMA (see sparkline): HMCALL in particular has unusual volume, a technical buy signal, and potential for more momentum.
  • Bearish:
    • REGALINS, ZENITHBANK, GTCO—closed below 15DMA, despite some seeing institutional interest (contrarian sign to watch).
    • TRIPPLEG: Big one-day drop -9.92% and below 15DMA; traders should await stabilization before considering a rebound play.

Contrarian Signals (Conflicting Indicators Worth Watching)

• ZENITHBANK (20.17% institutional trade value share):
  • Closed below 15DMA (Bearish MA breakdown) but strong institutional accumulation—potential accumulation phase. RSI near neutral (48.3); traders should watch for reversal.
• REGALINS:
  • Closed below 15DMA and appears in both gainers and YTD losers—signal is mixed. Today’s rebound may be a short covering or relief bounce, not a trend reversal yet.
• MERVALUE (ETF, -20.68% YTD):
  • Big daily gain after being among biggest YTD losers and negative MACD/RSI. Volatility is high; not safe for conservative portfolios.
• TRANSCORP POWER:
  • High volatility, strong MACD, but 20-day rate of change is 0.0—potential bull trap if buying is not sustained.

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunities)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Comprising 20.17% of institutional trade value today—heavy institutional clustering, despite closing below 15DMA (contrarian signal for savvy observers).
• MTNN: Heavy institutional and retail trading, yet price unchanged—could signal large repositioning. Monitor for breakout.
• UPDCREIT, HMCALL: Surging institutional and retail activity as they cross 15DMA, hinting at mounting momentum.

YTD Top Gainers & Losers (where trends overlap, caution!)

Trading Activity Analysis (Institutional vs Retail)

• Deal Flow: Institutions handled only 35.84% of trade count but a commanding 85.82% of value and 73.62% of volume. Retail dominated numerically but hunted for smaller ticket sizes and less impact.
• Top 5 Institutional Favourites:
  1. ZENITHBANK (20.17%)
  2. MTNN
  3. ARADEL
  4. GTCO
  5. UBA
  Almost all are large cap financials or telcos, with the exception of ARADEL (oil). Overlap to falling 15DMA for ZENITHBANK and GTCO signals possible bottom-fishing or portfolio rotations.
• Top 5 Retail Favourites:
  1. MTNN
  2. ZENITHBANK
  3. UBA
  4. GTCO
  5. FCMB
  Strong parallelism to institutional list, but MTNN is especially retail-centric by trade count, despite flat price—possibly setting up a bigger move driven by retail speculation or large block trades being worked in tranches.
• Correlation: Stocks with high institutional concentration—especially those crossing technical levels—are often harbingers of trend starts/stops. Beware ZENITHBANK and GTCO: the price is weak, but "smart" money is active.

Trader Suggestions & Cautions

• Opportunities:
  • Watch HMCALL, AFRIPRUD, and LINKASSURE for 15DMA breakouts with volume. These have momentum and low beta/dividend angle for safer swing trades.
  • MTNN is on institutional radar—continual sideways price could be a coiled spring for a large directional breakout.
• Caution:
  • Widespread volatility in certain insurance and ETF names (REGALINS, MERVALUE) could deliver whipsaws; use tight stops.
  • Top gainers with low RSI (MERVALUE) are vulnerable to profit-taking. Avoid chasing after big runs unless confirmed by further technicals.
• Defensive Play: Consider rotation towards AFRIPRUD, LINKASSURE, both with good dividend yields and positive short-term technical setups.

Last Week Recap (for context)

The Nigerian bourse finished last week on a relatively flat note after profit taking midweek, but the new week has started with a firmer tone as investors rotate into insurance, REITs, and select large caps. Turnover patterns signal institutions remain bullish in select banks, while retail is increasingly driving the insurance and telco volumes.

Summary: Hidden Insights and Final Thoughts

• Insurance sector dominates both top gainers and high unusual volume, supported by bullish momentum on several names.
• Institutional money clusters in banks and MTNN—with price/momentum divergence—pointing to potential inflection points.
• Several high-yield, low-beta stocks (e.g., AFRIPRUD, LINKASSURE) show technical strength—prime candidates for cautious bullish exposure.
• Sharp volume surges forecast short-term volatility: traders should use stops and remain nimble on illiquid or swingy insurance/ETF plays.
• Contrarian watch: Banks under institutional accumulation but bearishly postured—look for base-building/reversals.
• Technical Bulls: Play confirmed 15DMA breakouts—but note which ones are reinforced by volume and/or institutional flows.

Stay alert for cross-market rotation and do not chase runaway names without confirmation!