Nigerian Equity Market Daily Summary – Monday, December 1, 2025

The NGX All Share Index closed down by -0.22% at 143,520.53, slightly below its previous close. Despite this mild retreat, the index maintains a robust YTD gain of 38.8%. Market turnover rose to ₦13.13B (+3.14%), with trading volumes at 543.87M (up from Friday’s 488M), reflecting a modest revival in activity. However, market breadth tilted bearishly at 0.77x, with 23 advancers versus 30 decliners, suggesting prevailing profit-taking and mixed sentiment. The Naira gained modestly against the Dollar (+0.19%), providing a tailwind for foreign-positioned investors.

Quick Recap of Last Week (Nov 24-28, 2025):

• Index: NGX ASI traded sideways after recent highs, with intermittent profit-taking in tier-1 banks and industrials.
• Turnover: Rangebound, with institutional trades dominating (≈75%+), but retail volumes staying strong in small/mid-caps.
• Sector rotation: Profit-taking in ETFs and select industrials; insurance and select consumer names saw brief accumulation.
• Key focus: Bullish momentum names continued to outperform, but several previously stellar performers (notably ETFs) began to falter, presaging today's bearish breadth.

Key Trends & Market Breadth Insights

• Market breadth: Narrow (0.77x). More decliners than advancers – short-term risk-off or sectoral rotation at play.
• Advancers: 23 stocks up; 30 down.
• Volume was up for 71 companies and down for 70—a highly balanced tape, albeit with negative lead from price decliners.
• Top winners and losers show clustering at both extremes, particularly among ETFs and mid/small-caps.

Daily Top Gainers & Top Losers

Top 5 Gainers (Table)

*RSI above 70 often indicates overbought/overextended; risks of near-term reversal.

• NCR’s meteoric run is notable: YTD up 992.7%, RSI 99.5 (extremely overbought), bullish MACD and trading above both key MAs. Caution for new entries.
• STANBICETF30 is on a parabolic move—with YTD 212.2% and a nosebleed RSI. Both could attract profit-taking soon.
• Unusual volume on CHAMPION (134% of 90d average), aligning with its moving average breakout—momentum, but watch for stalling.

Top 5 Losers (Table)

• GREENWETF is down -46.9% YTD, with RSI near 33 (approaching oversold)—potential stabilization ahead if sellers exhaust.
• RTBRISCOE and DAARCOMM continue their slow declines (both also in YTD loser tables), hinting at enduring structural weakness.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Top 5 Losers (Monday Special)

• Note: The YTD "Losers” column includes positive returns due to ETFs and structural volatility—watch for "mean-reversion” trades.
• NCR and STANBICETF30 appear in both daily and YTD top gainers, showing momentum strength but at risk of becoming "crowded trades.”
• GREENWETF and RTBRISCOE show up as both top daily losers and YTD underperformers—possible bottom-fishing opportunities as RSI approaches oversold levels.

Bullish and Bearish Momentum Tables – Hidden Insights

• CHAMPION, GUINEAINS, LINKASSURE, AIICO, VITAFOAM among key names in bullish breakouts. CHAMPION especially noteworthy for also having unusual volume (+134% of 90d), suggesting institutional buying.
• RSIs for most bullish breakouts remain moderate (41–54), except NCR (99.5): highlights room for further upside for most, but NCR is clearly overheating and may experience pullbacks.
• Insurers: Multiple insurance names (AIICO, LINKASSURE, GUINEAINS) in bullish momentum, reflecting renewed sector confidence or rotation.
• Dividend-yielder VITAFOAM (7.03%) broke out on moderate volume—defensive income play with upside potential.

• RTBRISCOE and CORNERST show up as both bearish crossovers and daily losers, with sliding RSIs—downtrends may be persistent until sentiment improves.
• WAPCO shows a gentle breakdown—watch for sector pressure if this persists, given "Building Materials” weight.
• MANSARD and FIDELITYBK also feature in bearish momentum, both with modest RSIs ~31–48, signaling room for more downside if sell pressure increases.

Stocks With Unusual Volume – What’s Under the Hood?

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION: Despite +8.1% today, its RSI is at 41.2 (neutral), MACD slightly negative, but price crossed above 15DMA. The middling RSI amid bullish price/volume action may indicate further upside remains before overextension.
• WEMABANK: Huge volume spike (+797%), but price flat to down—possible "hidden” distribution by large holders even as retail crowds in.
• RTBRISCOE: Bearish momentum with an above-neutral RSI (53.2); mixed signals warn of choppy trading—avoid aggressive shorts.
• STANBICETF30: RSI at 81.8, up +9.9% today and a YTD behemoth (+212%). Overbought, but strong institutional/ETF flows dominating—contrarian traders may look for exhaustion soon.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix – Defensive Opportunities

• Dividend-yielders with low beta (VITAFOAM, CORNERST, FIDELITYBK) provide shelter in downside volatility periods—good for income portfolios.
• Bearish momentum stocks with high yield (like CORNERST, FIDELITYBK) may offer re-entry windows when technical pressure abates.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 81.5%+ by trade value, 4.09% of total market institutional volume—clear favorite for big blocks and efficient execution. Watch for signaling effects: when institutions crowd in/out, retail often follows.
• ACCESSCORP: Heavily traded by institutions (15.8% by volume), yet no price change; signals quiet accumulation—bullish prep for breakout?
• WAPCO, MTNN, UBA: All in top institutional flows, suggesting big money interest—MTNN, though, had flat performance and high retail activity as well.

Market Activity/Trades–Institutional vs Retail

• Institutions: 76.3% of volume, 87.6% of value, but just 1,567 trades (34.9% of deals)—block trading dominates. Watch ACCESSCORP and ZENITHBANK as institutional "thermometers.”
• Retail: 65.1% of total trades but only ~24% of volume; retail flocking to MTNN, ACCESSCORP, and ZENITHBANK for liquidity and safety in size.
• Correlations:
  • ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA: Feature heavily in both retail and institutional top trades, reinforcing their appeal for both liquidity seeking and block moves. Retail is "following smart money.”
  • MTNN: Massive retail count but modest total volume suggests split between many small trades vs. a few big institutional blocks—could signal churn post large institutional positioning.
• Volumes: WEMABANK, CUSTODIAN, CHAMPION, and ACCESSCORP see abnormal volume—to be monitored for either further breakouts or a reversal as "dumb money” gets attracted.

• Pattern: Heavy institutional/retail overlap in key banking names; new breakouts in less liquid small/mid-caps (NCR, CHAMPION) often lag institutional rotation.

Trader Suggestions: Opportunities & Cautions

• Momentum Players: Continue to ride NCR and STANBICETF30 but tighten stops—RSI extreme, and profit-taking risk is high.
• Contrarians: Watch for reversal setups in GREENWETF and RTBRISCOE—both oversold, persistent sellers may be exhausted soon.
• Defensive Longs: VITAFOAM is a rare blend of yield and upside—possible core addition on dips.
• Rotational Play: Insurance sector displaying both momentum and mean-reversion trades; be nimble and monitor for abrupt turns.
• Volume Spikes: Track WEMABANK/CUSTODIAN post unusual activity; confirmation is key to avoid "trap” rallies or dumps.
• Overlap Alert: Watch stocks appearing on multiple tables (e.g., CHAMPION)—these are often institutional targets before a more broad retail crowd-in occurs.

Summary:

• Markets are cautious but active, with institutional dominance and varied retail participation.
• Momentum is pivoting to selected small/mid-caps, while large-cap ETFs and banks show signs of sector rotation.
• Stay reactive to moving average/momentum signals, especially in fast-moving names with outsized volumes.
• Diversify exposure: don’t ignore defensive, dividend-yielding stocks—especially in choppy tape.