NGX Daily Market Summary – Wednesday, June 25, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) bounced back with a robust +1.22% rally to close at 119,790.82, reversing the previous session’s losses. Year-to-date (YTD), the ASI is now up +17.52%. Market turnover surged by +9.44% to ₦23.35B, fueled by heightened institutional activity and broad-based advances. With market breadth healthy at 3.14x (66 advancers vs. 21 decliners), buyers maintained firm control. Volume increased significantly to 830.88 million shares, up from yesterday’s 731.08 million, with 65 stocks seeing volume upticks. Notably, bullish momentum stocks like CHAMPION, NEIMETH, and BETA GLASS powered further ahead; yet, market action was punctuated by extremes as DANGSUGAR and MERVALUE exhibited sharp moves.

1️⃣ Significant Trends in Market Breadth

• Bullish breadth: 66 advancers vs 21 decliners, market breadth at 3.14x – signals strong positive sentiment.
• Volume expansion: Volume traded up in 65 companies, down in 76; suggests selective rotation with institutional flows targeting specific names.
• Turnover climbed +9.44% while trade deals stayed elevated at 21,299 – institutions are increasingly active, especially on big caps.

2️⃣ Highlights: Top Gainers & Losers

Top Gainers of the Day

Top Losers of the Day

• CHAMPION maintained its leadership in momentum with an RSI of 81.55, flagging overbought conditions but showing no signs of immediate reversal. Note: its MACD remains bullish.
• MERVALUE notched a +10% jump but its RSI is just 37. A possible technical bounce or rebound after being sold down, but MACD remains negative.
• RTBRISCOE is both a daily and YTD loser, cementing persistent weakness and now confirmed with a bearish 15DMA crossover.

3️⃣ Insights & Market Predictions

• Turnover surge (+9.44%) and volume breakout (up 100M vs prior day), with institutions accounting for ~92% of trade value and 70% of volume, indicate strong conviction and sets a bullish context ahead.
• Market Breadth: Strong advances over decliners reinforce likely continuation of the uptrend in the short-term, especially as key banking and consumer names participate.
• Unusual Volume: Massive surges in volume for CAVERTON (+1,441% above 90D average), ZENITHBANK (+107%), and CADBURY (+1,529%) flag fresh institutional interest—watch these names for follow-through.
• Bullish Momentum Standouts (RSI above 70 + MACD crossovers):
  • CHAMPION, NEIMETH, BETA GLASS - all have strong price run-ups, high RSI, and positive MACD, signaling overbought but not reversed.
  • ELLAHLAKES and FTNCOCOA also at extreme momentum, both with over +120% quarterly gains.
• Bearish Momentum: RTBRISCOE crossed below its 15DMA, both a daily and YTD loser, reinforced by negative momentum and lack of recovery buying.
• YTD Top Gainers Table: Market rally is increasingly concentrated: CHAMPION (+186%), BETA GLASS (+415%), LIVESTOCK (+121%), ELLAHLAKES (+135%), and UPDC (+109%)—but several (CHAMPION, NEIMETH) are approaching extremely overbought RSI readings.
• YTD Top Losers Table: Mostly small/mid-caps: DAARCOMM (-13%), ARADEL (-14%), RTBRISCOE (-16%). Persistent losers are generally not seeing technical reversals.
• Dividend Plays: UPDC still yields a staggering 34.2%, signaling potential for income-oriented strategies—yet watch liquidity and price volatility.

4️⃣ Contrarian Signals

• MERVALUE: Notched a +10% gain with an RSI of 37 and negative MACD. Despite today's bounce, the lack of technical confirmation could mean a bear market rally or one-off order flow, rather than sustained momentum.
• CHAMPION: Despite persistent momentum (RSI 81.5, strong MACD), YTD PE remains extremely elevated at 412.8x. Caution is advised—room for further upside exists, but risk of sharp reversal is high.
• RTBRISCOE: Even though not strictly oversold by RSI, it is a loser across daily and YTD, and has now triggered a bearish 15DMA cross; contrarians could watch for short-term bounce setups.
• DANGSUGAR: Strong daily move (+10%, RSI 68), yet YTD gain is lower than some peers—possibly late-cycle participation within the sector, watch for exhaustion.

5️⃣ Sector Heatmaps & Institutional/Retail Activity

Sector Performance Table

6️⃣ Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

• UPDC and NEIMETH are high-dividend stocks within the top bullish momentum—attractive for income-seeking traders, especially given their defensive Beta readings less than 1.
• ZENITHBANK combines high institutional interest, strong technicals and above market yield—a blend of growth and defense.

7️⃣ Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Accounts for 20.17% of total institutional trade value—confirms significant buy-side interest. Strong volume surge today.
• CADBURY: Appears in top institutional traded names with a +9.92% move and massive volume breakout, possible block trades or strategic accumulation.
• Institutional volumes are markedly concentrated in banking/financials, suggesting sector rotation towards perceived stability and growth.

8️⃣ High Dividend Yield & Momentum Crossovers

• UPDC: Outlier with 34% yield and strong YTD/Momentum table presence—unique among income stocks, but price volatility presents caution.
• NEIMETH: 3.38% yield, also in top bullish table; supports thesis for combined growth and income strategies.
• VERITASKAP (4.17% yield, recent 15DMA breakout): Could appeal to both momentum and dividend income investors.

9️⃣ Trader Suggestions

• Momentum traders: Favor stocks with high RSI and price crossing above 15DMA (e.g., CHAMPION, NEIMETH, BETAGLAS) but consider trimming or stop-loss given extreme overbought conditions.
• Value/dividend seekers: Look into UPDC, NEIMETH and ZENITHBANK for yield and defensive Beta.
• Contrarians/mean-reversion: Watch MERVALUE and RTBRISCOE for price stabilization or technical bounce opportunities; monitor volume for entry confirmation.
• ETFs: Mixed signals, as LOTUSHAL15 dropped -5.71% while MERVALUE rebounded +10%. Examine underlying assets for trend clarity.
• Watch: For names with high institutional clustering (especially in banking), as further accumulation can catalyze continued outperformance.

🔟 YTD Top Performers & Losers (Wednesday Table)

• Market leadership remains extremely concentrated; top gainers possess high momentum and, in some cases, above-average dividends, like UPDC and NEIMETH.
• RTBRISCOE is deeply negative YTD—latest daily losses likely to keep it under pressure.

1️⃣1️⃣ Market Activity/Trades Summary Analysis

• Institutional vs. Retail: Institutional investors dominated total volume (70%) and value (91.5%) despite accounting for just 38% of trade count—implying they are executing larger block trades, mainly in banks and blue chips.
• Top 5 Institutional Trades: ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA, GTCO, CADBURY – all large caps, all with recent technical breakouts. Notably, ZENITHBANK outpaced its 90-day volume by +107%, reinforcing concentration of flows and likely further price appreciation if momentum persists.
• Top 5 Retail Trades: ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO, MTNN. Pattern closely tracks institutional trades, but retail volumes are far smaller; demonstrates herding but without the same impact.
• Technical/Volume Correlation: Stocks registering as most-traded (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA, GTCO) also appear as momentum favorites with bullish signals—likely to remain market drivers.
• Hidden Insight: Watch for stocks with strong institutional clustering and high unusual volume—often early indicators of trend persistence or impending revaluations.

1️⃣2️⃣ Key Hidden Trends & Competitive Edge Insights

• Sectoral Rotation: Institutions are clearly ramping exposure in banks and quality blue chips—be agile and piggyback these flows if liquidity allows.
• Momentum + Dividend "Sweet Spot”: Stocks like NEIMETH, ZENITHBANK and UPDC offer both yield and momentum—a prime hunting ground for balanced strategies.
• Beware of "late-cycle” movers: DANGSUGAR is surging, but may be in the latter stage of its run (RSI near 70, already up YTD)—monitor for reversal signals.
• Persistent Weakness: RTBRISCOE and DAARCOMM show no technical reversal, suggesting further downside or dead money.
• Institutional Activity as a Predictor: Large surges in specific names (ZENITHBANK, CADBURY) have historically preceded further outperformance.
• Mean Reversion Opportunities: Names like MERVALUE with high daily gains but negative MACD/low RSI are contrarian setups—await price confirmation.

Summary

Today’s NGX session confirmed intensifying bullish sentiment, driven by a fresh wave of institutional buying into large-cap banks and select momentum favorites. With multiple stocks flashing overbought conditions (CHAMPION, BETAGLAS, ELLAHLAKES), traders should combine trailing stop-loss methods with opportunistic riding of winner trends. Meanwhile, attention to defensive dividend-momentum hybrids (UPDC, NEIMETH, ZENITHBANK) could provide a sturdy middle ground. Persistent laggards like RTBRISCOE give no reversal signals and can be avoided for now. As breadth and flows remain wide and robust, near-term outlook stays positive—but expect profit taking and sharp rotations in overextended names.

Action Point: Engage rising stars with momentum (but manage risk!), ride institutional favorites, and scan for defensive dividend standouts for portfolio stability.

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