NGX Daily Market Summary – Monday, 8 December 2025

Market Recap & Highlights

The Nigerian equities market opened the week in a positive mood, with the NGX ASI ticking up 0.26% to close at 147,040.08, maintaining its impressive 42.88% YTD return. Despite a decrease in market turnover by 2.52% to N12.97B, trade deals surged to 28,567, and volume traded climbed sharply to 535 million, up from 346 million in the previous session—a strong signal of growing market activity. Market breadth remained robust, with 51 advancers versus just 18 decliners (breadth ratio 2.83x), underlining healthy bullish sentiment. Today's leaders were the ETFs, with NEWGOLD ETF jumping 11.32% and Meristem ETFs also featuring prominently. Momentum stocks, unusual volume spikes, and strong technicals continue to guide trader focus—and with last week also closing higher, institutional activity and technical crossovers are setting the tone.

The Previous Week at a Glance

Last week, the NGX ASI maintained upward momentum, closing above 147k with broad-based rallies across notable sectors. Sector rotation remained evident, with funds flowing into both traditional financials and defensives, and ETF activity picking up. Retail participation was strong, but institutions dominated by value traded, suggesting accumulation in top banking names and select momentum plays.

Key Trends & Unusual Patterns

• Market Breadth: 51 stocks advanced vs 18 decliners (2.83x breadth) — a bullish sign reflecting strong underlying support, especially compared with persistent upward volumes (+90 companies up in volume vs 52 down).
• Liquidity Shifts: Trade volume soared 54.3% day-on-day, but value declined slightly. This hints at increased trading in lower-priced or highly liquid stocks—and ETF volumes and value, especially for NEWGOLD, contributed to this dynamic.
• ETF Leadership: Both the top gainer (NEWGOLD: +11.32%) and top losers (MERVALUE: -10.00%; VETGRIF30: -9.07%) were ETFs, underscoring the increasing influence of passive vehicles. SIAMLETF40 also stood out among gainers.
• Unusual Volume: UPDC: 689% above average; FCMB: 324% above average. JAPAULGOLD traded 253% above its 90-day average, accompanied by a strong price gain (+3.81%)—fresh bullish momentum signal.
• Technical Momentum: Several stocks triggered bullish crossovers with RSI > 70 (notably in top ETFs and MORISON), while some large-caps (e.g., FIDELITYBK, ACCESSCORP) show bearish signals with price below 15DMA along with mixed-to-weak RSI/MACD.

Top 5 Gainers & Losers (YTD and 5-Day Rolling)

Further Detailed Insights/Predictions

• Turnover Drop: The 2.52% drop in market value despite surging volume signals a shift to more speculative stocks or ETFs, less dominated by high-value blue-chips.
• Advancers Outpacing Decliners: The 2.83x advancers/decliners ratio, coupled with >50 rising stocks, points to strong near-term confidence, possibly spurred by positive macro/currency sentiment and seasonality.
• Unusual Volume Stocks:
  • UPDC (+689.82% from average): Potential catalysts, possibly corporate action/news—highly speculative, traders watch for price follow-through.
  • FCMB (+324.17%): Unusually strong institutional participation, with price modestly up—possible accumulation.
  • JAPAULGOLD and UPDCREIT also delivered volume spikes with positive price action—watch for momentum continuation.
• Technical Bullish (RSI & Moving Averages): Bullish crossovers abound: MORISON (RSI 92.6!) and SIAMLETF40 (RSI 91.7) may approach overbought—momentum traders will ride but look for pending reversals. NEWGOLD crosses above its 15DMA and also features in gainers and unusual ETF flows.
• Technical Bearish: FIDELITYBK, ACCESSCORP, OMATEK show price crossing below 15DMA—bearish signals. Volume tapering or price weakness in these could foreshadow near-term pullbacks.
• YTD Gainers in Momentum Tables: SIAMLETF40, CHAMS, MORISON and NEWGOLD appear across YTD gainers, today's gainers, and bullish momentum tables, establishing strong technical and fundamental credibility.
• Bullish 15DMA Cross: AFRIPRUD – defensive play (low Beta 0.64, yield 1.27%)—combine for a steady income/momentum hybrid.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION (from previous day context): RSI is mid-range (54.4) with bullish MACD, but negative YTD performance (-9.8%)—suggests any strength may not be sustainable unless accompanied by volume & sector confirmation.
• MORISON: RSI at 92.6 (overbought) yet still on a multi-day tear. This could be a textbook "too-far-too-fast"—profit-taking risk is rising.
• GUINEAINS: YTD positive, just crossed 15DMA, yet still among YTD laggards—late-cycle bounce or a signal of underlying value hidden by poor longer-term performance?

Sector Heatmap & Institutional/Retail Activity

Institutional/retail activity (see below) also suggests clustering in major banking stocks and ETFs.

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK led institutional trade, claiming 20.17% of institutional trade value (N2.6B out of ~N13B total market turnover). Other bank heavyweights saw significant but smaller shares.
• FCMB isn't just an unusual volume story—its institutional flows underline strong buy-side conviction and possible accumulation trend.

High Dividend Yield in Momentum/Bearish Tables – Implications

• AFRIPRUD and MANSARD: Both show up in bullish momentum tables with attractive dividend yields and low beta, enhancing their appeal as defensive growth plays.
• GUINEAINS has yield and bullish momentum but remains a laggard YTD. It could be a "late riser"—watch if defensive names gain new leadership.

Trading Desk Suggestions & Opportunities

• Momentum Focus: Stay with leaders in bullish crossover: NEWGOLD, SIAMLETF40, MORISON (with caution on overbought), CHAMS (if sustained volume appears).
• Defensive Rotation: Investors looking for lower-risk, yield-based returns may rotate to AFRIPRUD, UCAP, MANSARD.
• ETF Flows: Given heavy ETF volatility, traders can deploy range strategies or momentum tracking in NEWGOLD and MERVALUE; expect swift moves, tight stops are advised.
• Turnover Watch: If turnover remains below the prior average even as volumes rise, caution is warranted—could suggest froth in speculative small caps, potential for whipsaws.
• Banking Review: FCMB, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO dominated institutional and retail trading; attractive for liquidity-based strategies and short-term trades.
• Profit Taking Alert: MORISON (RSI 92.6) and STANBICETF30 (RSI 92.0) are overbought—consider scaling out or using trailing stops.

Market Activity/Trade Summaries — Insights

• Institutional Focus: Clustered on the banking sector (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, FCMB) — signals ongoing accumulation, especially with ZENITHBANK holding an outsized share of total institutional value.
• Retail Activity: While MTNN is a retail favorite for trade count, the volume and value pale next to institutional names—shows the "hot money” difference and a lag in influence on price action.
• Correlation: Stocks in institutional lists (especially with unusual volume—like FCMB) may be at an inflection for continuation or mean-reversion, depending on whether retail follows through.
• Use in Trading Decisions: Institutions often lead accumulation in uptrends, especially banking stocks; high retail participation can mean short-term pops or volatility, but durability often follows institutional flows.

Macro/Currency Note

The Naira continued its modest rally, appreciating 0.06% to 1,447/$ — a mild but positive backdrop for equities, especially those with USD-cost exposures (e.g., importers, multinational ETFs).

Bottom Line—Final Takeaways

• Bullish bias persists: Strong breadth, strong ETF leadership, positive currency moves.
• Profit-taking likely in overbought leaders (e.g., MORISON, SIAMLETF40).
• Banks remain institutional favorites—follow the smart money.
• Defensive high-yield/low-beta stocks like AFRIPRUD align with both income and momentum strategies—consider as portfolio anchors.
• Watch for high-volume anomalies in speculative sectors or ETF rebalancing.
• Retail trading surges, but value/trend in banks/large ETFs—best opportunities may still be found following institutional clustering patterns and cross-verifying with technical signals.

For tomorrow, monitor for profit-taking in overheated momentum names and sustain focus on institutional clustering patterns and defensive blends. Tighten risk controls if playing the increasingly volatile mid- and small-cap names.